The article examines the dynamics of the development of relations between the countries of the Baltic region, the influence of NATO and the United States on them in the conditions of the emerging polycentric world order. The main risks and threats to Russian regional security at the present time are identified, and measures to localize and neutralize them are proposed. The development of the international situation in the Baltic Sea in the medium term is predicted, and the possible consequences of the military escalation of the alliance in the region for the security of the Kaliningrad Region, a strategically important subject of the Russian Federation, are assessed. Based on the results of this empirical study, it is concluded that NATO member states in the Baltic region have recently changed their approaches to ensuring security in the Baltic. As their military and political positions deteriorated in the Ukrainian crisis, they began to force the expansion of the alliance, strengthen its infrastructure, pursue an active militaristic and provocative policy, and prepare for an armed conflict with Russia, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. This has a negative impact on the entire European security and significantly worsens the situation of the Kaliningrad region, surrounded by hostile countries. In the course of the study, various modern methods of political science were used to identify signs of the most important risks that could cause significant political and economic damage to Russia in the Baltic region. For a qualitative, unbiased scientific analysis of the trends, challenges and threats to Russia’s security taking place in the region, there is a need to improve the indicative system for assessing their level of danger, determining thresholds and directions for the development of the situation in vital systems, which would make it possible to make the most correct management decisions. There are many works devoted to the Baltic theme in Russian science, but in recent years there has been a noticeable decrease in publications, especially fundamental research. The foreign scientific community views this problem tendentiously and one-sidedly, and therefore does not provide objective and verified assessments of the situation. The relevance of the topic is caused by the presence of Russian strategic interests in the Baltic region, the unpredictability and rapid dynamics of the military-political situation here, which requires constant scientific coverage.