Forecasting knowledge as a tool for cognizing political reality
The theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting political processes are considered. The relevance of forecasting knowledge for contemporary political management and designing is grounded. The methods and implements for forecasting are evaluated not only within the context of the forecast ...
The applied research aspects of the regional forecasting of socioeconomic development
The article examines the theoretical and methodological problems of forecasting regional development. The author presents a concept of improving regional forecast preparation. The implementation of the concept will facilitate the increase in quality of forecast studies.
Russian-Estonian relations: a medium-term forecast
... non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of ...
Migration of researchers in the Baltic region: a forecast and factors
... Baltic part in particular. These factors include salaries and workplace environment. Methodologically, the study draws on Russian and international sources on the migration of researchers and builds models of two types to trace connections and to produce forecasts, while calculating the emigration rate. The models of the first type describe how the amount of salary and workplace conditions affect the number of researchers. These are vector autoregression models built in the R software environment, using ...
Long-term forecast of water surface temperature in the southeastern part of the Pacific Ocean
The article examines the results of use of the physical-statistical method for the forecast of seasonal trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) with the lead time of 8 months and results of statistical method of SST superlong-term forecast, lead time — 1 year. In the first case mean-squared prediction error of SST according to ...
Forecasting Actions of Baltic elites: A Scenario Approach
This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author’s theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in ...
Medium-term models of SMEs development in modern Russia
The article is devoted to forecasting the development of small and medium- size businesses (SMEs) in Russia. The authors offer an algorithm of the identification of development tendencies for small and medium-sized businesses using linear equations. The medium-term econometric ...
The forecasting of culture of trust in the agents of educational process at a university
The cases of two Kaliningrad universities are used in a forecast study of the interpersonal aspect of culture of students’ and teachers’ trust within higher professional education. The author gives a definition of the culture of trust between the agents of educational process and outlines the structure ...
The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trends
... long payback period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their ...
Development of electric road transport: simulation modelling
... in a given region. The proposed model allows the authors to take into account the key systemic feedback loops between the pool of electric vehicles and the charging infrastructure. In the absence of data required for the econometric methods of demand forecasting, the proposed model can be used for the identification of policies stimulating the consumer demand for electric vehicles in regions and facilitating the development of the electric transport infrastructure. The proposed model has been tested ...
The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application
In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach ...
The modelling of consumer demand for food in the Kaliningrad region
... ensuring regional food security. The comprehensive model includes the regulatory and statistical patterns of consumption and a model of demand for resources among agricultural manufacturers. The article presents the results of statistical modelling and a forecast of regional consumer demand based on a survey of Kaliningraders held in October 2014 using the STATISTICA™ package.
1. Лукьянова Н. Ю., Соколова А. А. Моделирование портрета потребителя ...
The cluster modelling of complex forecasting of economic and marketing processes
This article suggests forecasting socioeconomic and marketing processes in the Russian market conditions of a transitional period with the help of cluster modelling, which would significantly increase the objectivity of assessing the identified processes and the impact of ...
Population Ageing as a Sociodemographic Problem in the Baltic Region
Population ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st century. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and forecast is provided for the case of the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions ...
The climate aspect of introducing new North American blueberry taxa in Belarusian Polesia
... article analyses long-term meteorological and climatic data for Bela¬ru¬sian Polesia, namely, the Gantsevichi district of the Brest region. The authors have established significant thermal regime changes towards warming, which makes it possible to forecast the long-term possibility of cultivating more heat-loving varieties of the Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) in Belarussian Polesia.
1. Вавилов Н. И. Избранные труды. Т. 5. : Проблемы происхождения,...
Efficiency of the CSP technology using in Caspian region (on the example of the North Akkar oilfield)
For the first time in the fields of the Caspian region was used the CSP technology, which makes it possible to extract the scattered waves from the full wave field. One the basis of scattered waves sections and map analysis had made the forecast of fracture cavernous reservoirs in carbonate Triassic sediments of the North Akkar oilfield. Confirmation of the executed forecast allows to recommend this technology for mapping non conventional fracture-cavernous reservoirs on other fields ...
Geosituational Modelling of Coastal Marine Systems
... capsizing of a wave of a tsunami on the coast with a big inclination of a bottom, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 91—97. (In Russ.)
12. Malinin, V. N., Chernyshkov, P. P., Gordeeva, S. M. 2007, About a problem of the long-term forecast of a jack mackerel in a southeast part of the Pacific Ocean, Voprosy promyslovoj okeanologii, Vol.4, no. 1, p. 52—62. (In Russ.)
13. Interregional atmospheric pollution of territories: Kaliningrad region, 1997, St. Petersburg, 108 p. (In Russ....
Environmental condition as a factor affection the health of Saint Petersburg residents
... region. The authors compare the health state trends in Saint Petersburg residents and the population of other Baltic countries. The environmental dependence of some diseases, including oncological ones, is emphasized. Three variants of population health forecasting are presented: inertiadepressive, stabilization, and stabilization-progressive ones. The article discusses the ways to increase the level of health of the city’s residents.
1. Алаев Э. Б. Социально-экономическая ...
Principles of geological interpretation of the scattered waves field
The basic principles of geological interpretation of the scattered waves field are represented. One the basis of scattered waves sections and map analysis had made the forecast of fracture cavernous reservoirs. These reservoirs are very perspective object for oil deposits exploration. The researchers are based on original prestack migration method — Common Scattering Point, which makes it possible to get two independent ...
Improving Human Resource Training Policy for the Balanced Economic and Demographic Development of the Kaliningrad Region
... of specialists in the humanities trained at universities heavily outweighs that in engineering and technology. The number of skilled workers trained in the region is insufficient. Frequent changes in the economic specialisation complicate an accurate forecast of the need for human resources. The rectification of disproportions requires comprehensive interdisciplinary studies within the demography/education/economy system at all territorial and regional levels, which will make it possible to produce ...
Important Staging Sites of Geese and Swans in the Cross-Border Wetland Complex of the Neman Delta
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Russia’s energy geostrategy in the Baltic Sea region
... state. The article analyses the role Russia plays in the energy policy of the region from both geopolitical and geostrategic viewpoints. The author identifies the main characteristics of the Russian energy policy in these countries, and provides with a forecast for energy policy development in the region. A geostrategic approach dictates any successful energy policy in the Baltic Sea region to bring in line Russian interests with those of the European states.
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Human Resource Efficiency as a Development Factor for the Kaliningrad Economy
... resources are of even more importance in the Kaliningrad exclave. This paper aims to increase understanding of the role of human resources in the economic development of the Kaliningrad region. The study uses the cohort component method, scenario-based forecasting of the development and application of human resources, and econometric calculations of the comparative efficiency of human resources application across a range of economic activities. The author puts forward a number of recommendations for ...
Key Strategies of Development of Research Tools and Methods for Marine Spatial Planning
... p. 115—119.
3. Belousov, A. R. 2006, Scenarii social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossii na pjatnadcatiletnjuju perspektivu [Scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia for fifteen years perspective], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of forecasting], no. 1, p. 3—52.
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5. Vargina, T. V., Myakinenkov, V. M. 2008, Gradostroitel'nyj kodeks RF [Town Planning Code], Upravlenie razvitiem territorij ...
Current Geodemographic Problems in the European Union and Migration Crisis of the 2010s
... population remains poorly integrated into the local community and its effect on the latter is insignificant (Turks in Germany). The demographic mosaic of the European Union is becoming increasingly fragmented, which makes any national level demographic forecasts inconsequential. However, community-level forecasts are possible and necessary. All this creates a need for geodemographic research.
1. Balabeykina, O., Martynov, V.2015, Lutheranism in Finland: past and present, Balt. Reg., no. 4 (26), ...
Russia’s energy policy in the Baltic region: a geoeconomic approach
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Opportunities and Challenges of Large Investment Projects in the New Economy: the Port of Ust-Luga
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Security in the Baltic region as a Projection of Global Confrontation between Russia and the USA
... Cambridge University Press.
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Towards a Stable and Dynamic Economy in the Kaliningrad Region
... evaluation of the competitiveness of the regions of Russia], Problemy sovremennoj jekonomiki [Problems of Modern Economics], no. 3, p. 285—290.
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macro/prognoz/doc20130325_06 (accessed ...
The features of providing telecommunication infrastructure for business activity
... methodology for providing telecommunication infrastructure for business activities at different management levels. The author proves that it is possible to develop this methodology on the basis of queuing theory. The author proposes an algorithm of forecasting changes in infrastructure provision for business activity.
1. Бирман И. Я. Оптимальное программирование. М., 1968.
2. Исследование операций / под ред. Дж. Моулдера, ...
Formation of monitoring system for food security (at the example of the Kaliningrad region)
The author substantiates that among basic elements of mechanism of food security provision one should consider monitoring and forecasting
of factors defining threats for food security in the exclave region.
ежегодник: статистический сборник. Калининград, 2008.
Using Python Libraries for Analysis of the Customer Churn Rate of a Bank
... Bank-Customer-Churn-Modeling // Kaggle: Your Machine Learning and Data Science Community. URL:
churn-modeling (дата обращения: 23.11.2019).
Belova E. E., Tolstel’ O. V.
bank customers, data analysis, forecasting, logistic regression, Guassian naive Bayes, decision trees, KNN, random forest, Python
On the assessment of cross-border regions' development potential
... gosudarstvennoj statistiki po Kaliningradskoj oblasti. Kaliningrad.
5. Tinbergen, J. 1956. Economic Policy: Principles and Design, p. 276.
cross-border cooperation, exclave region, Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, potential, modeling and forecasting of cross-border processes
The pedagogical prognosis of success on the basis of teenagers' personal characteristics analysis
Как сохранить психологическое здоровье подростков: пособие для школы. М.: Сентябрь, 2003.
academic and social success, self-actualisation, personal characteristics, forecast.
The fractured reservoir of the Riphean of the Angara folds zone
This article gives an overview of the Low Angara oil-and-gas basin. The prospectively of the upper Riphean sediments of Angara folds is shown. The authors present the results of a forecast of fractured reservoir propagation in the top layer of Riphean sediments in the case of the Ilbokich license area. The article analyses scattered waves and identifies the objects interpreted as frac-tured reservoir propagation areas.
1. Кремлев ...
The prognostic characteristics of storm floods in the mouth of the River Pregolya (in the Kaliningrad region)
... offers an analysis of a series of maximum values of annual levels in 1950-2009 and historical maximums of storm onsets in Kaliningrad. The authors calculated the linear trend equation and identified the duration of onset cycles. The article offers a forecast for 2016.
1. Любимова О. Е., Иванов С. Н., Бережный Б. Д. Анализ динамики уровня в устьевой зоне р. Преголи у г. Калининграда // Проблемы управления ...
Economic and Demographic Forecast and Prospects of Human Resource Endowment of the Kaliningrad Region’s Economy
The limited reproduction of labour power and difficulties in the attraction of a considerable amount of additional workforce from other regions or
neighbouring states bring about the need for the transition of regional economy to intensive development by means of innovation, increase in labour efficiency, cross-industry redistribution of labour force and exploiting the local resources of unemployed population.
социально-экономического развития Калининградской области на 2007—2016...
The military and political situation in the Baltic region in the late 20th/early 21st centuries: the prospects of ‘uneasy peace’
... aims to analyse the security prospects of the Baltic region in view of the changes in the overall geopolitical situation in Europe and in the relations between Russia and its closest neighbours and the leading NATO countries. We examine the ideas and forecasts of international and Russian experts relating to the state and dynamics of military security in the region at the first stage of the Baltics’ membership in NATO. Another focus is on changes in the strategy of the NATO leadership for the ...
Marine Spatial Planning: Theoretical Aspects
... into a single whole. A hierarchical approach is key to transboundary marine basins. I propose the following techniques: geographical zoning, identification of an area and basin-specific combinations of natural resources, geoinformation modelling, and forecast analysis for different activities and relevant spatial elements of aquaterritorial structures.
Baklanov P. Ya.
marine spatial planning, coastal- marine space segment, marine geosystems, trans-boundary marine basins, natural resource combinations,...
Current Scenarios for the Demographic Future of the World: The Cases of Russia and Germany
... ‘second’, ‘third’, and ‘fourth’ demographic transitions, and scenarios for the ‘Eurasian demographic development path’. We employ a range of methods from comparative demography as well as historical analogies, expert evaluations and demographic forecasts. We analyse the patterns of current demographic development in Russia and Germany to explore various demographic scenarios. In the conclusion, we stress the need for Russia and other countries, including Germany, to embark on the ‘Eurasian ...
The The Variability of Bottom Friction Velocity and the Suspended Particle Propagation along the Pathway of Saline Inflow into the Baltic Sea
... resuspension at these points and to predict propagation pathways.
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2. Männik A., Merilain M. Verification of different precipitation forecasts during extended winter-season in Estonia // HIRLAM Newsletter. 2007. Vol. 52. P. 65—70.
3. Журбас В. М., Элькен Ю., Вяли Г. и др. Пути переноса взвешенных частиц в придонном слое ...
Contemporary society as a post-industrial and technogenic one
... техногенной цивилизации // Вопросы философии. 1989. № 10.
12. Уэбстер Ф. Теории информационного общества. М., 2004.
13. Bell D. The coming of post-industrial society: a venture in social forecasting. N. Y., 1976.
post-industrialism concept, crisis state of society, anthropogenic development of society and the world, post-industrial and technogenic society
The dynamics of men’s 100 meters records in Russia
... growth in athletics development records. An analysis of the records dynamics makes it possible not only to register the key moments in the history of a chosen sport against the background of changing methodological attitudes, but also to make a correct forecast of the development of corresponding training methodologies aimed at improving sports performance on the basis of a strictly quantitative analysis.
1. Шаги рекордов // Легкая атлетика. 1965. № 11. С. 26—28.
The groundwater monitoring in the Novgorod region in the system of regional nature management
... proven to be incapable of fully implementing its functions. It requires a fundamental reorganization and further development at the contemporary scientific and technical level, since groundwater resource management is impossible without a quantitative forecast of groundwater condition and properties.From the perspective of rational Nature management, the leading ecological function of underground hydrosphere is carried out by fresh underground waters. Rational Nature management underlies the sustainable ...
Историческое развитие современной финансово-биржевой системы, существенно повлиявшей на глобализацию мировой экономики
... биржевых кризисов.
This article focuses on the origin of world crises of stock exchange and finance and credit systems, which appear to fall into an established pattern. Only through understanding the origin of such systems, one can model and forecast the dynamics of monetary and credit processes and assess the possibility of overcoming crises. Historically, the greatest influence on exchange activities has been exerted by the credit and monetary system of the USA. Thus, a stage-by-stage analysis ...
The theory of peripheral capitalism: on the applicability of the Latin American model to the Baltic States. An attempt at an inter-disciplinary analysis
... America and the Baltic States are so obvious that they eclipse economic similarities between the processes and development models characteristic of the two regions of the world. An analysis of current developments in Latin America makes it possible to forecast the economic and, to a degree, political consequences of the trends that are just emerging in the Baltics. This article seeks to prove the above thesis.
Maksimtsev, I. A., Mezhevich, N. M., Sirota, N. P.
transit, transformation, modernisation,...
Paleoecological conditions of the Gdansk basin in Holocene in the complex analysis of short sediment cores
... to the World Ocean. Information on environmental conditions in the past is necessary to understand the observed changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, to identify the natural and anthropogenic components of these changes, as well as to make reliable forecasts. Changes in natural conditions are reflected in the composition of bottom sediments. Based on the complex study of three short sediment cores, including lithological, micropaleontological and geochemical analysis, the environmental conditions ...
Assessment of Alternatives of Organisation’s Strategic Potential Development by Method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (HPA)
... Hierarchy Process // WiSt. 15.
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The Analytic Hierarchy Process
St. Louis, 1980.
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Boston; Dordrecht; London, 1990.
Planung, Systemanalytische und entscheidungstheoretische Grundlagen. Berlin
Wind Y., Saaty T.
Marketing applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process //
Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns
... a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban ...
Sea-industry complex as a reserve for overcoming economic crisis in the sea-shore region
The author substantiates the function of sea-industry complex in overcoming economic crisis and makes the forecast of project development
of this complex in the Kaliningrad region.
В., Коновалов А.
[и др.]. Подходы к стратегическому прогнозированию // Теория ...