Long-term forecast of water surface temperature in the southeastern part of the Pacific Ocean
The article examines the results of use of the physical-statistical method for the forecast of seasonal trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) with the lead time of 8 months and results of statistical method of SST superlong-term forecast, lead time — 1 year. In the first case mean-squared prediction error of SST according to ...
Russian-Estonian relations: a medium-term forecast
... non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of ...
The applied research aspects of the regional forecasting of socioeconomic development
The article examines the theoretical and methodological problems of forecasting regional development. The author presents a concept of improving regional forecast preparation. The implementation of the concept will facilitate the increase in quality of forecast studies.
1.
Методические
рекомендации
...
The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trends
... long payback period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their ...
The cluster modelling of complex forecasting of economic and marketing processes
This article suggests forecasting socioeconomic and marketing processes in the Russian market conditions of a transitional period with the help of cluster modelling, which would significantly increase the objectivity of assessing the identified processes and the impact of ...
Forecasting knowledge as a tool for cognizing political reality
The theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting political processes are considered. The relevance of forecasting knowledge for contemporary political management and designing is grounded. The methods and implements for forecasting are evaluated not only within the context of the forecast ...
The climate aspect of introducing new North American blueberry taxa in Belarusian Polesia
... article analyses long-term meteorological and climatic data for Bela¬ru¬sian Polesia, namely, the Gantsevichi district of the Brest region. The authors have established significant thermal regime changes towards warming, which makes it possible to forecast the long-term possibility of cultivating more heat-loving varieties of the Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) in Belarussian Polesia.
1. Вавилов Н. И. Избранные труды. Т. 5. : Проблемы происхождения,...
Important Staging Sites of Geese and Swans in the Cross-Border Wetland Complex of the Neman Delta
...
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Russia’s energy geostrategy in the Baltic Sea region
... state. The article analyses the role Russia plays in the energy policy of the region from both geopolitical and geostrategic viewpoints. The author identifies the main characteristics of the Russian energy policy in these countries, and provides with a forecast for energy policy development in the region. A geostrategic approach dictates any successful energy policy in the Baltic Sea region to bring in line Russian interests with those of the European states.
1. Beck, U. 2012, Zhivya v mirovom obshchestve ...
Key Strategies of Development of Research Tools and Methods for Marine Spatial Planning
... p. 115—119.
3. Belousov, A. R. 2006, Scenarii social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossii na pjatnadcatiletnjuju perspektivu [Scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia for fifteen years perspective], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of forecasting], no. 1, p. 3—52.
4. Voitolovsky, G. K. 2005, Dinamika razvitija [The dynamics of the development], Moscow, SOPS.
5. Vargina, T. V., Myakinenkov, V. M. 2008, Gradostroitel'nyj kodeks RF [Town Planning Code], Upravlenie razvitiem territorij ...
Verbalization of communicative strategies in foreign policy discourse: a case study of the Russian President’s addresses to the international audience
... Speech tactics of the “call for frankness”.
Voprosy Jazykoznanija
[Topics in the study of language], 6, pp. 82—93 (in Russ.).
Zolyan, S. T., 2018. The language of politics or language in the political function?
Polity: analysis. Chronicle. Forecast
, 3, pp. 31—49,
http://doi.org/10.30570/2078-5089-
2018-90-3-31-49 (in Russ.).
political discourse, communicative strategies and tactics, subjects of communication, communicative move, speech act theory.
Kostenkov I.A.
189-207
10.5922/2225-5346-2025-2-11
Prerequisites for the formation of Neostructuralism as an integral linguistic paradigm
This work is the result of methodological reflection related to the comprehension of more than two hundred years of experience accumulated since the secularization of linguistics, and the formation of a reasonable forecast regarding the near and medium-term development of linguistic science. The development of linguistics is determined by the dynamics of paradigms. In understanding the latter term, the author follows the tradition laid down by Kuhn, taking into ...
Who and how produces the future (Alexander Fedorov’s new philosophy of common cause)
... obozrenie
[New Literary Review], 4, pp. 16—31 (in Russ.).
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New York, 526 p.
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Mir v 2000 godu. Svod mezhdunarodnykh prognozov
[The world in 2000. Compendium of international forecasts]. Moscow, 240 p. (in Russ.).
Bakhtin, M. M., 1986. To the philosophy of action. In:
Filosofiya i sotsiologiya nauki i tekhniki: ezhegodnik
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1984—1985
[Philosophy and Sociology of Science and Technology: Yearbook. 1984—1985]. Moscow,...
An analysis of climate continentality index for Russia's NorthEast
Analysis of climate continentality is a powerful tool for studying and forecasting weather. Considering the continentality index enables determining current climate characteristics and predicting potential changes. This study aims to assess climate change in Russia’s North-East by analysing the continentality index as ...
Intangible Factors of U. S. Influence in Latin American and Caribbean Countries in the Entertainment Industry Context
... approach and employed the method of statistical data analysis from open sources. A comparative method was used to identify common trends in the examined sectors of the entertainment industry in the context of the U.S. intangible influence and to provide a forecast regarding the extent of this influence in the medium term. The use of intangible tools of influence in the studied area represents an attempt by the U.S. to maintain and strengthen its position as a regional leader in the era of global great ...
“And the Young Turks will not resurrect their fatherland”: Russian right-wingers and the Young Turk Revolution
... through which the opinion of the Russian right on the Young Turk Revolution was formed are identified: the ideological positions of conservatives rejecting revolutionary social changes; Turkey’s place in the system of international relations and the forecasting of geopolitical changes in light of the Young Turks’ rise to power; and the perception of revolutionary events in Turkey as a negative example of potential further developments in Russia’s domestic political situation. The range of issues ...
Gothic components of science fiction’s genealogy
... werewolves, the living dead could be presented either as a result of experimentation or as an object of scientific exploration. In Russian literature, V. F. Odoevsky made a move from Gothic poetics towards long-term social, scientific and technological forecasting in a fiction text. The role of Gothic in the genesis of science fiction is clearly visible in the artistic world of H. P. Lovecraft who elaborated supernatural horror in the form of nonhuman manifestations of the indifferent Universe. The ...
The forecasting of culture of trust in the agents of educational process at a university
The cases of two Kaliningrad universities are used in a forecast study of the interpersonal aspect of culture of students’ and teachers’ trust within higher professional education. The author gives a definition of the culture of trust between the agents of educational process and outlines the structure ...
The dynamics of men’s 100 meters records in Russia
... growth in athletics development records. An analysis of the records dynamics makes it possible not only to register the key moments in the history of a chosen sport against the background of changing methodological attitudes, but also to make a correct forecast of the development of corresponding training methodologies aimed at improving sports performance on the basis of a strictly quantitative analysis.
1. Шаги рекордов // Легкая атлетика. 1965. № 11. С. 26—28.
2. ...
The pedagogical prognosis of success on the basis of teenagers' personal characteristics analysis
...
Как сохранить психологическое здоровье подростков: пособие для школы. М.: Сентябрь, 2003.
Lyoushkina N.
academic and social success, self-actualisation, personal characteristics, forecast.
120-126
Prospects for a new intervention by military in the political processes in the Republic of Turkey
... the country. The last attempted coup in 2016 undermined the already weakened position of the military, but there is no firm certainty that the army will not attempt to reclaim its role as a hidden guardian. The goal of the undertaken research was to forecast the conditions under which the military might attempt a coup. Scenario analysis was used for the prediction. As a result, three scenarios for the development of the Republic of Turkey were obtained: the establishment of a rigid clerical authoritarianism,...
Factors of self-actualization of student youth in the context of cross-cultural interaction and the mastering of a macro-mediator language
... in the types of strategies for mediating cultural and linguistic environment. The identification of similarities / distinctions in the ways of self-actualization of the personality, most widespread in intercultural interaction, allows the author to forecast the pragmatics of the impact of various linguistic and cultural stimuli on the character of civilisational processes in multinational regions.
1. Добреньков В. И., Кравченко В. И. Методы социологического ...
Medium-term models of SMEs development in modern Russia
The article is devoted to forecasting the development of small and medium- size businesses (SMEs) in Russia. The authors offer an algorithm of the identification of development tendencies for small and medium-sized businesses using linear equations. The medium-term econometric ...
The modelling of consumer demand for food in the Kaliningrad region
... ensuring regional food security. The comprehensive model includes the regulatory and statistical patterns of consumption and a model of demand for resources among agricultural manufacturers. The article presents the results of statistical modelling and a forecast of regional consumer demand based on a survey of Kaliningraders held in October 2014 using the STATISTICA™ package.
1. Лукьянова Н. Ю., Соколова А. А. Моделирование портрета потребителя ...