Long-term forecast of water surface temperature in the southeastern part of the Pacific Ocean
The article examines the results of use of the physical-statistical method for the forecast of seasonal trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) with the lead time of 8 months and results of statistical method of SST superlong-term forecast, lead time — 1 year. In the first case mean-squared prediction error of SST according to ...
The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application
In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach ...
Russian-Estonian relations: a medium-term forecast
... non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of ...
The Accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO: Geopolitical implications for Russia’s position in the Baltic Sea region
... complete isolation in the region and to prevent a dangerous escalation of tensions, fraught with a direct military clash with NATO. The aim of this study is to analyze the immediate and potential challenges that Russia faces in the Baltic region, to forecast possible scenarios for the development of the situation, and to formulate some recommendations in terms of how Russia should act to minimize the damage, and in the long term, to find ways out.
To achieve this aim, elements of the retrospective ...
Development of electric road transport: simulation modelling
... in a given region. The proposed model allows the authors to take into account the key systemic feedback loops between the pool of electric vehicles and the charging infrastructure. In the absence of data required for the econometric methods of demand forecasting, the proposed model can be used for the identification of policies stimulating the consumer demand for electric vehicles in regions and facilitating the development of the electric transport infrastructure. The proposed model has been tested ...
Migration of researchers in the Baltic region: a forecast and factors
... Baltic part in particular. These factors include salaries and workplace environment. Methodologically, the study draws on Russian and international sources on the migration of researchers and builds models of two types to trace connections and to produce forecasts, while calculating the emigration rate. The models of the first type describe how the amount of salary and workplace conditions affect the number of researchers. These are vector autoregression models built in the R software environment, using ...
Population Ageing as a Sociodemographic Problem in the Baltic Region
Population ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st century. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and forecast is provided for the case of the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions ...
Security in the Baltic region as a Projection of Global Confrontation between Russia and the USA
... Cambridge University Press.
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The applied research aspects of the regional forecasting of socioeconomic development
The article examines the theoretical and methodological problems of forecasting regional development. The author presents a concept of improving regional forecast preparation. The implementation of the concept will facilitate the increase in quality of forecast studies.
1.
Методические
рекомендации
...
The two-party tendency in Poland’s political system: manifestations, causes and prospects
... of the election laws. The new party model, which appeared in the late 2000s, has been characterised by inner stability despite the considerable number of problems PiS and PO have faced on their way to expanding their influence. The multiple sceptic forecasts concerning the prospects of Poland’s system with two major parties have not been confirmed so far.
Yet, the logic behind these forecasts holds up. One can hardly expect that the ‘two-party tendency’ will intensify in Poland: that would ...
German participation in the Three Seas Initiative: opportunities for Russia
... project with Russia to be run as a part of the Three Seas Initiative, deserve special attention.
1. Khorol’skaya, M. V. 2019, New in Foreign Policy Orientation of the leading Parties in Germany, Analiz i prognoz. Zhurnal IMEMO RAN [Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal], № 1, p. 70—85 (in Russ.).
2. Mikhailenko, V. I. (eds.) 2018, Asymmetries of regional integration projects of the 21st century, Ekaterinburg, Ural University Press (in Russ.).
3. Skvortsova, E. M. 2021, The Polish American ...
Migration attractiveness of the coastal zone of Russia’s North-West: local gradients
... innovation in science, education and technology, no. № 8 (9), p. 50—52 (in Russ.).
38. Mkrtchyan, N.V. 2018, Intra-Russian migration in regional capitals and non-capital territories, Nauchnye Trudy [Scientific works], Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. doi: https://doi.org/10.29003/m280.sp_ief_ras2018/568-585.
39. Skuf’ina, T.P., Serova, N.A. (eds.) 2017, Regiony Severa i Arktiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii: sovremennye tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya: ...
The effect of geographical position and employment fluctuations on rural settlement trends
... the Association of Russian Geographers and Social Scientists], no.
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, p. 1—12 (in Russ.).
7. Zayonchkovskaya, Zh.A. 2000, Migration of the population of the USSR. Russia in the 20th century: evolution through cataclysms, Problemy prognozirovaniya [Forecasting problems], no. 4, p. 1—15 (in Russ.).
8. Mkrtchyan, N.V. 2019, Migration in the Russian countryside: territorial differences, Naselenie i ekonomika [Population and economy], no. 1 (3), p. 39—52. doi:
https://dx.doi.org/10.3897/popecon....
The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trends
... long payback period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their ...
Current Geodemographic Problems in the European Union and Migration Crisis of the 2010s
... population remains poorly integrated into the local community and its effect on the latter is insignificant (Turks in Germany). The demographic mosaic of the European Union is becoming increasingly fragmented, which makes any national level demographic forecasts inconsequential. However, community-level forecasts are possible and necessary. All this creates a need for geodemographic research.
1. Balabeykina, O., Martynov, V.2015, Lutheranism in Finland: past and present, Balt. Reg., no. 4 (26), ...
Geosituational Modelling of Coastal Marine Systems
... capsizing of a wave of a tsunami on the coast with a big inclination of a bottom, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 91—97. (In Russ.)
12. Malinin, V. N., Chernyshkov, P. P., Gordeeva, S. M. 2007, About a problem of the long-term forecast of a jack mackerel in a southeast part of the Pacific Ocean, Voprosy promyslovoj okeanologii, Vol.4, no. 1, p. 52—62. (In Russ.)
13. Interregional atmospheric pollution of territories: Kaliningrad region, 1997, St. Petersburg, 108 p. (In Russ....
Forecasting Actions of Baltic elites: A Scenario Approach
This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author’s theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in ...
The cluster modelling of complex forecasting of economic and marketing processes
This article suggests forecasting socioeconomic and marketing processes in the Russian market conditions of a transitional period with the help of cluster modelling, which would significantly increase the objectivity of assessing the identified processes and the impact of ...
The climate aspect of introducing new North American blueberry taxa in Belarusian Polesia
... article analyses long-term meteorological and climatic data for Bela¬ru¬sian Polesia, namely, the Gantsevichi district of the Brest region. The authors have established significant thermal regime changes towards warming, which makes it possible to forecast the long-term possibility of cultivating more heat-loving varieties of the Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) in Belarussian Polesia.
1. Вавилов Н. И. Избранные труды. Т. 5. : Проблемы происхождения,...
Efficiency of the CSP technology using in Caspian region (on the example of the North Akkar oilfield)
For the first time in the fields of the Caspian region was used the CSP technology, which makes it possible to extract the scattered waves from the full wave field. One the basis of scattered waves sections and map analysis had made the forecast of fracture cavernous reservoirs in carbonate Triassic sediments of the North Akkar oilfield. Confirmation of the executed forecast allows to recommend this technology for mapping non conventional fracture-cavernous reservoirs on other fields ...
Principles of geological interpretation of the scattered waves field
The basic principles of geological interpretation of the scattered waves field are represented. One the basis of scattered waves sections and map analysis had made the forecast of fracture cavernous reservoirs. These reservoirs are very perspective object for oil deposits exploration. The researchers are based on original prestack migration method — Common Scattering Point, which makes it possible to get two independent ...
Important Staging Sites of Geese and Swans in the Cross-Border Wetland Complex of the Neman Delta
...
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Forecasting knowledge as a tool for cognizing political reality
The theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting political processes are considered. The relevance of forecasting knowledge for contemporary political management and designing is grounded. The methods and implements for forecasting are evaluated not only within the context of the forecast ...
Towards a Stable and Dynamic Economy in the Kaliningrad Region
... evaluation of the competitiveness of the regions of Russia], Problemy sovremennoj jekonomiki [Problems of Modern Economics], no. 3, p. 285—290.
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analytical support of the relationship between business and government], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of Forecasting], no. 3, p. 19—32.
26.Yuzvovich, L. I. 2011, Koncessionnyj mehanizm kak instrument gosudarstvennoj investicionnoj ...
Improving Human Resource Training Policy for the Balanced Economic and Demographic Development of the Kaliningrad Region
... of specialists in the humanities trained at universities heavily outweighs that in engineering and technology. The number of skilled workers trained in the region is insufficient. Frequent changes in the economic specialisation complicate an accurate forecast of the need for human resources. The rectification of disproportions requires comprehensive interdisciplinary studies within the demography/education/economy system at all territorial and regional levels, which will make it possible to produce ...
Russia’s energy geostrategy in the Baltic Sea region
... state. The article analyses the role Russia plays in the energy policy of the region from both geopolitical and geostrategic viewpoints. The author identifies the main characteristics of the Russian energy policy in these countries, and provides with a forecast for energy policy development in the region. A geostrategic approach dictates any successful energy policy in the Baltic Sea region to bring in line Russian interests with those of the European states.
1. Beck, U. 2012, Zhivya v mirovom obshchestve ...
Key Strategies of Development of Research Tools and Methods for Marine Spatial Planning
... p. 115—119.
3. Belousov, A. R. 2006, Scenarii social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossii na pjatnadcatiletnjuju perspektivu [Scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia for fifteen years perspective], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of forecasting], no. 1, p. 3—52.
4. Voitolovsky, G. K. 2005, Dinamika razvitija [The dynamics of the development], Moscow, SOPS.
5. Vargina, T. V., Myakinenkov, V. M. 2008, Gradostroitel'nyj kodeks RF [Town Planning Code], Upravlenie razvitiem territorij ...
The modern economy of Russia’s Baltic regions in the municipal context
... 23-18-00180 ‘Multivariants of determinants and trends of economic dynamics of Russian municipalities: conceptualization, identification and typologization in the interests of state regulation of spatial development’) in the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Kuznetsova O. V.
municipalities, Kaliningrad region, Leningrad region, Rosstat statistics, accounting, tax reporting, state policy
142-164
10.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-8
The border as a barrier and an incentive for the structural economic transformation of the Kaliningrad exclave
... the application to the terms of the grant,’ said in the interview an official from the Chernyakhovsky municipality.<14>
It is too early to assess successes and failures at this challenging historical moment. Although it is difficult to make forecasts and draw up detailed plans in conditions of uncertainty, the strategic objectives are clear: overcoming critical dependence of certain industries and enterprises on imports, developing high-tech industries, and ensuring more active participation ...
The adaptation of Russian regions’ economies to the rupture of relations with Europe: the case of Baltic Sea ports
... to external pressure turned out to be very high, which made it possible to significantly mitigate the consequences of sanctions and to quickly commence economic restructuring.
For instance, as surveys conducted by the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences showed, in the spring of 2022, many Russian enterprises began searching for alternative suppliers of sanctioned products. 36 % of surveyed enterprises responded that they were looking for alternative suppliers ...
From the editor
... economic measures and describe further steps to adapt Russia’s Baltic regions to the new geopolitical and geo-economic conditions whilst ensuring their socio-economic development.
Guest editor of the issue
Prof Olga V. Kuznetsova, Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia.
Olga V. Kuznetsova
4-5
10.5922/2079-8555-2023-4-0
Prospects for a new intervention by military in the political processes in the Republic of Turkey
... the country. The last attempted coup in 2016 undermined the already weakened position of the military, but there is no firm certainty that the army will not attempt to reclaim its role as a hidden guardian. The goal of the undertaken research was to forecast the conditions under which the military might attempt a coup. Scenario analysis was used for the prediction. As a result, three scenarios for the development of the Republic of Turkey were obtained: the establishment of a rigid clerical authoritarianism,...
Artificial Intelligence: a catalyst for entrepreneurship education in the Baltics
... present an empirical analysis using AI and other big data methods to test phenomena and mechanisms that have already been studied by traditional methods in previous entrepreneurship studies. The analysis conducted by Coad and Srhoy is oriented towards forecasting the parameters associated with high-growth companies. Employing the Big Data methodology, they identify authentic predictive variables from a considerably extensive pool of potential candidate predictors. In the article authored by Obschonka ...
Gothic components of science fiction’s genealogy
... werewolves, the living dead could be presented either as a result of experimentation or as an object of scientific exploration. In Russian literature, V. F. Odoevsky made a move from Gothic poetics towards long-term social, scientific and technological forecasting in a fiction text. The role of Gothic in the genesis of science fiction is clearly visible in the artistic world of H. P. Lovecraft who elaborated supernatural horror in the form of nonhuman manifestations of the indifferent Universe. The ...
Application of spatial analysis of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 (the case of the Pskov region)
... biomedical and organizational issues, the emergence of the new coronavirus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, set large-scale tasks for creating and improving mathematical and information technologies that operate spatial data in statistical analysis and forecasting. The regional level is seen as a suitable choice for spatial analysis of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality due to the availability of statistics, as well as data on geographical patterns, characteristics of the distribution space (population ...
Kant and the New Enlightenment: On the Balance between Duty and Utilitarian Ends
... conflicting values. The overarching problem of the philosophy of balance is the restraining of egoism. For this reason I first examine the relationship between duty and human inclinations in Kant’s ethics. I then demonstrate that the topic of political forecasts and the recommendations which Kant prescribes both in his philosophy of history and in his reflections on politics, right and justice, essentially boils down to three points of the philosophy of balance: the balance between development and justice ...
Evaluating the efficiency of the research sector in Russian regions: a dynamic data envelopment analysis
... proposed method serves as a valuable ranking technique, enhancing existing evaluations of regions’ research and technology potential in terms of efficiency. The article concludes by discussing the prospects and limitations of the method in evaluating and forecasting research and technology profiles of regions.
Introduction
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) spans a wide range of nonparametric methods routinely used for ranking study objects according to their production efficiency [1], [2], [3]. A comprehensive ...
Efficiency analysis of seaports in Russia’s Baltic basin: performance evaluation
... attention to the analysis and evaluation of performance from a strategic management standpoint. While significant research has been dedicated to other strategically important aspects such as designing logistics systems, planning performance indicators, and forecasting demand and supply, the analysis of effectiveness is often treated as a secondary element of management, which, in our opinion, is a misconception. On the contrary, regular monitoring and evaluation of transport and logistics activities are ...
A typology of the Baltic region states according to excellence in science and technology
... study will be further complemented by expert surveys and an analysis of the Baltic region’s exports/imports traffic and patent activity. This approach will enable a characterization of the demand for the scientific and technological subsystem and the forecasting of its further development.
The study was carried out with the financial support of the IKBFU for research project № 122040500026-0.
Azhinov D. G., Lapshova T. E.
10.5922/2079-8555-2023-1-5
78-95
scientific and technological development,...
Geoeconomic risks faced by the Russian Baltic region amid a deteriorating geopolitical situation
... G., Karabulut, G. 2020, How do geopolitical risks affect government investment? An empirical investigation, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 31, № 5, p. 550—564.
10. Ezhiev, I. 2011, Geopolitical risk: subject, object, classification, analysis, forecasting, Vlast’, № 1, p. 50—55 (in Russ.).
11. Dzhus, I. V. 2004, Politicheskie riski: otsenka, analiz i upravlenie [Political Risks: Assessment, Analysis and Management], M., IMEMO RAN, 92 p. (in Russ.).
12. Fjäder, C., Helwig, N., Wigell,...
Between the Eurasian and European subsystems: migration and migration policy in the CIS and Baltic Countries in the 1990s—2020s
... migratsiya v Rossii: pravovaya praktika» seriya «Migratsionnaya situatsiya v regionakh Rossii» [Internal Migration in Russia: Legal Practice, Migration Situation in Russia’s Regions series], Centre for Migration Research, Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, M., 84 p.
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43. Molodikova, I., Nagy, Z. 2003, Hungary in the context of European Economic migration, Migracijske ...
Development of municipal districts in Saint Petersburg over the last decade: an economic and spatial analysis
... Conferences, № 164, art. 05009. doi:
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15. Batchaev, A. R., Zhikharevich, B. S. 2014, Saint-Petersburg in the Post-Soviet Time: Economic Strategies and Development, Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, № 4 (34), p. 68—83.
16. Anokhin, A. A., Lachininskii, S. S., Zhitin, D. V., Shendrik, A. V., Mezhevich, N. M., Krasnov, A. I. 2017, Post-Soviet Urban Environment: the Experience of St. Petersburg, Regional Research of Russia, vol. 7, № ...
Analysing the dynamics of the Baltic States’s production linkages with Russia
... the world trade crisis of 2015—2016, Russia was a more promising market than Germany and Finland for the Baltic States’ companies trading in intermediate goods.
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Adapting regional strategies to the new non-resource export development target
... updated non-resource non-energy export targets.
1. Porfir’ev, B. N., Shirov, A. A., Uzyakov, M. N. et al. 2020, The main directions of socio-economic development in 2020—2024 and for the period up to 2035, Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of Forecasting], vol. 180, no. 3. p. 3—15. (in Russ.).
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Paleoecological conditions of the Gdansk basin in Holocene in the complex analysis of short sediment cores
... to the World Ocean. Information on environmental conditions in the past is necessary to understand the observed changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, to identify the natural and anthropogenic components of these changes, as well as to make reliable forecasts. Changes in natural conditions are reflected in the composition of bottom sediments. Based on the complex study of three short sediment cores, including lithological, micropaleontological and geochemical analysis, the environmental conditions ...