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... non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of ...

The article examines the results of use of the physical-statistical method for the forecast of seasonal trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) with the lead time of 8 months and results of statistical method of SST superlong-term forecast, lead time — 1 year. In the first case mean-squared prediction error of SST according to ...

The article is devoted to forecasting the development of small and medium- size businesses (SMEs) in Russia. The authors offer an algorithm of the identification of development tendencies for small and medium-sized businesses using linear equations. The medium-term econometric ...

This article suggests forecasting socioeconomic and marketing processes in the Russian market conditions of a transitional period with the help of cluster modelling, which would significantly increase the objectivity of assessing the identified processes and the impact of ...

The article examines the theoretical and methodological problems of forecasting regional development. The author presents a concept of improving regional forecast preparation. The implementation of the concept will facilitate the increase in quality of forecast studies. 1.  Методические рекомендации ...

... Vilnius , 1980. P . 212-232. 18. Ivanauskas T. Birds of Lithuania . Anatidae. Vilnius , 1959. Vol. 2. P. 33-60 (in Lithuanian). 19. Švažas S., Gražulevičius G. Geese migration in Lithuania . In: M. Žalakevičius (ed.). Study, modelling and forecasting of bird migration. Vilnius , 1987. P. 63-75 (in Russian). 20. Vaitkevicius A. Visible migration of waterfowl and other waterbirds in Lithuania . Reports of East Baltic Commission on the study of bird migration. Tartu , 1968. Vol. 5. P....

... state. The article analyses the role Russia plays in the energy policy of the region from both geopolitical and geostrategic viewpoints. The author identifies the main characteristics of the Russian energy policy in these countries, and provides with a forecast for energy policy development in the region. A geostrategic approach dictates any successful energy policy in the Baltic Sea region to bring in line Russian interests with those of the European states. 1. Beck, U. 2012, Zhivya v mirovom obshchestve ...

... p. 115—119. 3. Belousov, A. R. 2006, Scenarii social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossii na pjatnadcatiletnjuju perspektivu [Scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia for fifteen years perspective], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of forecasting], no. 1, p. 3—52. 4. Voitolovsky, G. K. 2005, Dinamika razvitija [The dynamics of the development], Moscow, SOPS. 5. Vargina, T. V., Myakinenkov, V. M. 2008, Gradostroitel'nyj kodeks RF [Town Planning Code], Upravlenie razvitiem territorij ...

... Speech tactics of the “call for frankness”. Voprosy Jazykoznanija [Topics in the study of language], 6, pp. 82—93 (in Russ.). Zolyan, S. T., 2018. The language of politics or language in the political function? Polity: analysis. Chronicle. Forecast , 3, pp. 31—49, http://doi.org/10.30570/2078-5089- 2018-90-3-31-49 (in Russ.).

This work is the result of methodological reflection related to the comprehension of more than two hundred years of experience accumulated since the secularization of linguistics, and the formation of a reasonable forecast regarding the near and medium-term development of linguistic science. The development of linguistics is determined by the dynamics of para­digms. In understanding the latter term, the author follows the tradition laid down by Kuhn, taking into ...

... oboz­renie [New Literary Review], 4, pp. 16—31 (in Russ.). Badiou, A., 2007. Being and Event. New York, 526 p. Bainhauer, H. and Schmakhe, E., 1973. Mir v 2000 godu. Svod mezhdunarodnykh prognozov [The world in 2000. Compendium of international forecasts]. Moscow, 240 p. (in Russ.). Bakhtin, M. M., 1986. To the philosophy of action. In: Filosofiya i sotsiologiya nauki i tekhniki: ezhegodnik . 1984—1985 [Philosophy and Sociology of Science and Techno­lo­gy: Yearbook. 1984—1985]. Moscow,...

... and the Origin of Species . Monographs in popu­lation biology, 41. Princeton University Press. Giddens, A., 1984. The constitution of society: Outline of the theory of structuration . Cambridge: Polity Press. Goodman, N., 1965. Fact, Fiction and Forecast . Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. Grice, H. P., 1989. Studies in the Way of Words . Harvard University Press. Habermas, J., 2003. On the Pragmatics of Communication . Cambridge: Polity Press. Kripke, S., 1982. Wittgenstein on Rules and Private ...

... infinitesimal calculus and carry out an analysis of the threshold values of the event function. The third problem is the verification of the model and the description of its possible applications. In this context, we demonstrate how this model can be used in forecasting and developing special events, including those in interactive mode. Aristotle, 2006. Мetafizika [Metaphysics]. Moskva, Institut filosofii, teologii i istorii sv. Fomy (in Russ.). Badiou, A., 2005. Metapolitika: mozhno li myslit' politiku?...

... and replicators create deviational variants of myths that somehow differ from each other. Such an imperfect process of intergenerational information transfer contributed to the emergence of a large number of variative religious trends, astrological forecasts and so on. The author describes the semiotic system of myth, the main feature of which is its targeted orientation. Such a system of myth promotes the description of the impact of external phenomena on the inner world of man through far-fetched ...

... conflicting values. The overarching problem of the philosophy of balance is the restraining of egoism. For this reason I first examine the relationship between duty and human inclinations in Kant’s ethics. I then demonstrate that the topic of political forecasts and the recommendations which Kant prescribes both in his philosophy of history and in his reflections on politics, right and justice, essentially boils down to three points of the philosophy of balance: the balance between development and justice ...

... mathematicians. It was not considered a means of rational prediction of social actions. In the late 18th century, Nicolas de Condorcet (1743—1794) first proposed to apply probability theory to moral and political disciplines thus creating a basis for social forecasting. The methods he developed made it possible to predict the results of political elections and formed the basis for the theory of social choice. However, Condorcet’s ideas on the limits of mathematical constructs’ application in social and ...

... werewolves, the living dead could be presented either as a result of experimentation or as an object of scientific exploration. In Russian literature, V. F. Odoevsky made a move from Gothic poetics towards long-term social, scientific and technological forecasting in a fiction text. The role of Gothic in the genesis of science fiction is clearly visible in the artistic world of H. P. Lovecraft who elaborated supernatural horror in the form of nonhuman manifestations of the indifferent Universe. The ...

The cases of two Kaliningrad universities are used in a forecast study of the interpersonal aspect of culture of students’ and teachers’ trust within higher professional education. The author gives a definition of the culture of trust between the agents of educational process and outlines the structure ...

... growth in athletics development records. An analysis of the records dynamics makes it possible not only to register the key moments in the history of a chosen sport against the background of changing methodological attitudes, but also to make a correct forecast of the development of corresponding training methodologies aimed at improving sports performance on the basis of a strictly quantitative analysis. 1. Шаги рекордов // Легкая атлетика. 1965. № 11. С. 26—28. 2. ...

... through which the opinion of the Russian right on the Young Turk Revolution was formed are identified: the ideological positions of conservatives rejecting revolutionary social changes; Turkey’s place in the system of international relations and the forecasting of geopolitical changes in light of the Young Turks’ rise to power; and the perception of revolutionary events in Turkey as a negative example of potential further developments in Russia’s domestic political situation. The range of issues ...

... approach and employed the method of statistical data analysis from open sources. A comparative method was used to identify common trends in the examined sectors of the entertainment industry in the context of the U.S. intangible influence and to provide a forecast regarding the extent of this influence in the medium term. The use of intangible tools of influence in the studied area represents an attempt by the U.S. to maintain and strengthen its position as a regional leader in the era of global great ...

... the country. The last attempted coup in 2016 undermined the already weakened position of the military, but there is no firm certainty that the army will not attempt to reclaim its role as a hidden guardian. The goal of the undertaken research was to forecast the conditions under which the military might attempt a coup. Scenario analysis was used for the prediction. As a result, three scenarios for the development of the Republic of Turkey were obtained: the estab­lishment of a rigid clerical authoritarianism,...

... in the types of strategies for mediating cultural and linguistic environment. The identification of similarities / distinctions in the ways of self-actualization of the personality, most widespread in intercultural interaction, allows the au­thor to forecast the pragmatics of the impact of various linguistic and cultural stimuli on the character of civilisational processes in multinational regions. 1. Добреньков В. И., Кравченко В. И. Методы социологического ...

... long pay­back period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commer­cial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, in­cluding scenarios and their ...

... ensuring regional food security. The comprehensive model includes the regulatory and statistical patterns of consumption and a model of demand for resources among agricultural manufacturers. The article presents the results of statistical modelling and a forecast of regional consumer demand based on a survey of Kaliningraders held in October 2014 using the STATISTICA™ package. 1. Лукьянова Н. Ю., Соколова А. А. Моделирование портрета потребителя ...

The relatively rapid – however slower than forecasted — development o retail chains is characteristic of Russia in general, nevertheless it exhibits significant territorial differences. An attempt to identify the factors behind these differences through calculating the correlation coefficient ...

.... European identity cannot develop in an institutional crisis. The concept of European identity requires structural reconstruction, new foundations, since the old ones are, to a great degree, an extension of earlier political discourses. The author forecasts that the change in discourses around European identity will lead to a shift in the paradigm and the perception of this phenomenon in political theory. 1. Janik A. Different perception of Europe in a time of crisis Europe as an opportunity.URL: ...

... техногенной цивилизации // Вопросы философии. 1989. № 10. 12. Уэбстер Ф. Теории информационного общества. М., 2004. 13. Bell D. The coming of post-industrial society: a venture in social forecasting. N. Y., 1976.

... биржевых кризисов. This article focuses on the origin of world crises of stock exchange and finance and credit systems, which appear to fall into an established pattern. Only through understanding the origin of such systems, one can model and forecast the dynamics of monetary and credit processes and assess the possibility of overcoming crises. Historically, the greatest influence on exchange activities has been exerted by the credit and monetary system of the USA. Thus, a stage-by-stage analysis ...

... methodology for providing telecommunication infrastructure for business activities at different management levels. The author proves that it is possible to develop this methodology on the basis of queuing theory. The author proposes an algorithm of forecasting changes in infrastructure provision for business activity. 1. Бирман И. Я. Оптимальное программирование. М., 1968. 2. Исследование операций / под ред. Дж. Моулдера, ...

The author substantiates that among basic elements of mechanism of food security provision one should consider monitoring and forecasting of factors defining threats for food security in the exclave region. 1.  Демографический ежегодник: статистический сборник. Калининград, 2008. 2.  Калининградская ...