The Baltic Region

2014 Issue №1(19)

Back to the list Download an article

Russian-Estonian relations: a medium-term forecast

DOI
10.5922/2079-8555-2014-1-3
Pages
34-40

Abstract

This article shows why the non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of political phenomena, but rather about the trends of current states, which are called scenarios. The article describes the four possible scenarios of changes in the role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy that are evaluated from the perspective of the development of Russian-Estonian relations and factors affecting the probability of each scenario. It is shown that any change in the role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy depends not only on the specific actions of the Estonian elite, for example their readiness to change their position on the participation of Russian-speaking population in the democratic decision-making process or the evaluation of controversial events of the past, but also on the meaning that will be attached to these actions by the Russian elite.

Reference

1. Blagoveshhenskij, N. Yu., Krechetova, M. Yu., Satarov, G. A. 2012, Jekspertno-statisticheskij Bajesovskij podhod k scenarnomu politicheskomu prognozirovaniju [Expert statistical Bayesian approach to screenwriting political forecasting], Polis
(Politicheskie issledovanija) [«POLIS» Journal — Political Studies], no. 4, p. 74—98.
2. Tüür, K. 2012, Russia and Estonia. In: Tüür, K., Morozov, V. (eds.), Russian Federation 2013: Short-Term Prognosis, Tartu, Tartu University Press, p. 123—126.
3. Jestonskaja Respublika (spravka) [The Republic of Estonia (reference)], November 7, 2011, Ministerstvo inostrannyh del Rossijskoj Federacii [Ministry of For eign Affairs of the Russian Federation], available at: http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/nsreuro.
nsf/348bd0da1d5a7185432569e700419c7a/f9903503901c7dd143256db100527f77!OpenDocument (accessed 07.11.2013).
4. Zinoviev, A. A. 1996, Postkommunisticheskaja Rossija: publicistika 1991—1995 gg. [Post-Communist Russia: 1991—1995, journalism.], Moscow, 367 p.
5. Paet, U. 2007, Rusia actúa como si no se hubiese disuelto la URSS, El Pais, 7 de mayo.
6. Lanko, D. A. 2010, Stanovlenie regiona Severnogo izmenenija kak prioriteta vneshnej politiki centrov sily v Baltijskom regione [Formation of the Northern change as a priority foreign policy centers of power in the Baltic region], Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Serija 6: Filosofija. Kul'turologija. Politologija.Pravo. Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija [Vestnik St. Petersburg University. Series 6],no. 4, p. 107—117.
7. Zaslavskaya, N. G. 2013, Institucional'nye aspekty finansovogo krizisa v Evrozone [Institutional aspects of the financial crisis in the Eurozone], Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Serija 6: Filosofija. Kul'turologija. Politologija.
Pravo. Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija [Vestnik St. Petersburg University. Series 6],no 3, p. 129—133.
8. Klemeshev, A., Fedorov, G., Zverev, Yu. 2011, On the potential and opportunities for cooperation between the Baltics in the field of innovations, Baltic Region,no. 3 (9), p. 88—97. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2011-3-9.
9. Vardomsky, L. B. 2000, Prigranichnyj pojas Rossii: problemy i tendencii razvitija [Border zone of Russia: problems and trends], Rossija i sovremennyj mir [Russia and the modern world], no. 2, p. 54—64.
10. Makarychev, A. 2005, Pskov at the Crossroads of Russia’s Trans-Border Relations with Estonia and Latvia: Between Provinciality and Marginality, Europe— Asia Studies, Vol. 57, no. 3, May, p. 481—500.
11. Mezhevich, N. M. 2007, Rossijsko-jestonskaja granica: istorija formirovanija i sovremennoe znachenie dlja razvitija Severo-Zapada Rossii [Russian-Estonian border: formation history and contemporary significance for the development
of the North-West Russia], Pskovskij regionologicheskij zhurnal [Pskov regional study Journal], no. 4, p. 134—145.
12. Greckij, I. V. 2013, Rossijsko-pol'skie otnoshenija na sovremennom jetape [Russian-Polish relations at the present stage], Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta.Serija 6: Filosofija. Kul'turologija. Politologija. Pravo. Mezhdunarodnye
otnoshenija [Vestnik St. Petersburg University. Series 6], no. 3, p. 121—128.
13. Smith, G., Wilson, A. 1997, Rethinking Russia’s Post-Soviet Diaspora: The Potential for Political Mobilization in Eastern Ukraine and North-East Estonia,Europe — Asia Studies,Vol. 49, no. 5, July, p. 845—864.
14. Khudolei, K. K. 2013, Sovetizacija Baltijskih gosudarstv letom 1940 goda i ee posledstvija [The Sovietization of the Baltic States in the summer of 1940 and its consequences], Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Serija 6: Filosofija.
Kul'turologija. Politologija. Pravo. Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija [Vestnik St. Petersburg University. Series 6], no. 1, p. 94—110.