2020 Issue №1

During the period of implementation of the policy of import substitution in Russia, the level of production of basic agricultural products is gradually approaching the rational rate of their consumption. The biggest gap in provid­ing the population with basic food remains in the production of milk. Only 71.0 % of the recommended norm of dairy produce is consumed. At the same time, in 2017, the level of self-sufficiency of Russia with this type of food was 84.0 % (against 90.0 % indicated in the Doctrine), due to a steady decline in the number of cows. Consequently, there was a drop in milk production. The main reason for the crisis in the dairy cattle industry is low investment at­tractiveness of the industry, poor breed composition of the herd, a long pay­back period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commer­cial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, in­cluding scenarios and their quantitative justification. Special attention is paid to the method of extrapolation modeling linear and nonlinear trends. The method of trend modeling has been supplemented by the method of expert as­sessment. The empirical basis of the forecast calculations was the assessment of trends in the development of agricultural producers during 2004—2017.

The economic and demographic situation in the Kaliningrad region is better than in most regions of the country. The dynamic economic deve­lop­ment results in high employment and low unemployment rates. The demand for labour force is partially satisfied through high net migration rate. Ho­we­ver, there are obvious distinctions between municipalities. Having analyzed the statistical data on the situation in urban districts, the authors identified ter­ritorial differences, influencing the economic and demographic situation in mu­nicipalities of different types. It is shown that peripheral eastern muni­ci­palities lag behind the western part of the region, where the city of Kalinin­grad is located. In the east, where the level of employment is lower and the prob­lem of unemployment is more complicated, there is a significant migra­tion outflow of the population to Kaliningrad and its satellite towns. The re­gio­nal programme Vostok is being developed to tackle the problem of the eas­tern municipalities. It offers additional benefits to investors compared with the me­chanism of the Special Economic Zone. However, less developed social inf­ra­structure, low standards of living and the outflow of the population from the eas­tern municipalities require additional attention.