Search

The article examines the results of use of the physical-statistical method for the forecast of seasonal trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) with the lead time of 8 months and results of statistical method of SST superlong-term forecast, lead time — 1 year. In the first case mean-squared prediction error of SST according to ...

In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach ...

... non-existent political dialogue between Russia and Estonia will hardly develop in the next five years and why Estonia can lose its significance for the Russian foreign policy rhetoric and Russian mass media. This conclusion is drawn from a medium-term forecast about the changing role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy. The forecast is based on the scenario methodology, which suggests that the modern means of political forecasting make it possible to make conclusions not about the future states of ...

... in a given region. The proposed model allows the authors to take into account the key systemic feedback loops between the pool of electric vehicles and the charging infrastructure. In the absence of data required for the econometric methods of demand forecasting, the proposed model can be used for the identification of policies stimulating the consumer demand for electric vehicles in regions and facilitating the development of the electric transport infrastructure. The proposed model has been tested ...

... Baltic part in particular. These factors include salaries and workplace environment. Methodologically, the study draws on Russian and international sources on the migration of researchers and builds models of two types to trace connections and to produce forecasts, while calculating the emigration rate. The models of the first type describe how the amount of salary and workplace conditions affect the number of researchers. These are vector autoregression models built in the R software environment, using ...

Population ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st cen­tury. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and forecast is provided for the case of the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions ...

The article examines the theoretical and methodological problems of forecasting regional development. The author presents a concept of improving regional forecast preparation. The implementation of the concept will facilitate the increase in quality of forecast studies. 1.  Методические рекомендации ...

... long pay­back period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commer­cial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, in­cluding scenarios and their ...

This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author’s theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in ...

... article analyses long-term meteorological and climatic data for Bela¬ru¬sian Polesia, namely, the Gantsevichi district of the Brest region. The authors have established significant thermal regime changes towards warming, which makes it possible to forecast the long-term possibility of cultivating more heat-loving varieties of the Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) in Belarussian Polesia. 1. Вавилов Н. И. Избранные труды. Т. 5. : Проблемы происхождения,...

The theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting political processes are considered. The relevance of forecasting knowledge for contemporary political management and designing is grounded. The methods and implements for forecasting are evaluated not only within the context of the forecast ...