The Baltic Region

Current issue

Politics and international relations

EU in search of a Russia policy? Multiple streams framework, decolonization,Baltic entrepreneurs

Abstract

The start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) created a conceptual vacuum in the
European Union’s policy toward Russia. By classifying Moscow as a strategic threat, Brussels curtailed all contacts with it, instead prioritizing sanctions and support for Ukraine. The aim of this article is to examine how decolonization, understood as a socio-­political category, has become the ideational foundation of the EU’s Russia policy and to highlight the role of Baltic entrepreneurs in shaping this discourse. Theoretically, the analysis is informed by the multiple streams framework; empirically, it draws on EU policy documents and political speeches delivered between 2022 and the present.

Three distinct interpretations of decolonization are identified. The first highlights the previously limited agency of the Baltic States and Poland in shaping EU—Russia policy, which has now given way to Brussels’ acceptance of the most uncompromising ‘Baltic line’ on Russia. The second emphasizes inter-­imperiality, understood as both the liberation of post-­Soviet Eurasia from Russian influence and the emancipation of states in this region through deeper and more equitable cooperation with the EU. This interpretation underpins the EU’s revision of its enlargement policy, the additional legitimation of anti-­Russian sanctions, and the creation of a new hierarchy of actors in the post-­Soviet space. The third, currently marginal, interpretation focuses on restoring subjectivity to Russia’s peoples and regions. While EU policymakers rarely elaborate on this perspective, its very existence reinforces a negative backdrop that constrains the possibility of dialogue between Russia and the EU. The article demonstrates the central role of Baltic entrepreneurs in advancing these interpretations of decolonization and underscores the differences in their technical feasibility. In conclusion, the three interpretations are compared and briefly assessed in terms of their implications for the potential restoration of Russia—EU relations.

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The role of the Council of the Baltic Sea States in advocating national minority rights in the 1990s

Abstract

The article examines the activities of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) in promoting national minority rights between 1994 and 2000. The study is based on a detailed analysis of documents from the Foreign Policy Archive of the Russian Federation, which are introduced into scholarly circulation for the first time. The chronological scope is defined by the period when Ole Espersen served as Commissioner on Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, Including the Rights of Persons Belonging to Minorities.

The findings suggest that Russia, concerned about the situation of the Russian-speaking po­pulation in the Baltic States, was the main initiator of CBSS efforts to strengthen na­tional minority rights. Although the problem of discrimination against Russian speakers in the Baltic States remained unresolved, the Commissioner’s activities significantly contributed to the standardization of the legal and institutional framework for protecting vulnerable population groups, particularly national minorities. The authors argue that these activities also sup­ported the consolidation of European human rights institutions and encouraged Russia to enhance the national legislation in this field.

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Poland’s diasporal policy (1991—2025): dynamics of institutional changes

Abstract

The development of relations between the Polish state and its compatriots abroad has a long tradition, dating back to the period of the Second Republic. Under the model of interaction established at that time, the upper house — the Senate — was responsible for relations with the Polish diaspora (Polonia). This institutional framework was restored in the post-socialist period and was regarded as a means of demonstrating continuity in relations with Poles abroad. Over time, however, practical contradictions emerged, particularly concerning the allocation of funds for diaspora policy and the struggle among political forces to position themselves as defenders of the Polish diaspora. As a result, several attempts were made to reform the institutions of diaspora policy in Poland, involving both the strengthening of the executive authorities and the Senate. Theoretically, the article draws on a neo-institutional methodology and interprets the observed transformations as forms of institutional change driven both by structural factors and by the expansion of the range of actors involved in interactions within the state apparatus. The analysis demonstrates that the main trends in the transformation of diaspora policy institutions in Poland between 1991 and 2025 were the formalization of institutional design, the gradual reduction in the scope of implemented changes, and the general incompleteness of the transformations, which stemmed from their relative frequency and inter-party competition, primarily between the Civic Platform and Law and Justice.

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Political and strategic factors and risks of implementing the nuclear power program in Poland

Abstract

The introduction of nuclear power is an ambitious, strategically significant undertaking currently being implemented by Poland as it steadily strengthens its political and economic influence both within the European Union and in the broader context of global international relations. Poland intends to use nuclear power to overcome the limitations of its current energy mix, meet European Union climate policy requirements, and strengthen the competitiveness of its economy. However, the lack of domestic technological capacity necessitates the involvement of a foreign technology provider—not only for the construction of nuclear power plants but also for the development of related infrastructure. The choice of a foreign partner is shaped by the prevailing geopolitical situation and the network of political and economic relationships that arise from this decision. The progress and eventual completion of the nuclear power program will carry significant foreign policy implications for the regional system of international relations.

This article, drawing on methods of systematic and institutional analysis, represents the first attempt to examine the political and strategic factors underlying the implementation of Poland’s nuclear power program as reflected in strategic planning documents. In the framework of the empirical research, the program is understood as a complex political and strategic project. The study highlights the specificity of the domestic political processes surrounding it and, in its applied dimension, identifies foreign policy implications while assessing the risks associated with the program’s implementation.

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Regional economy and spatial development

Coastal municipalities in the spatial development of Russia: multidimensional typologization

Abstract

In the spatial structure of modern Russia, vast coastal zones play a significant role. Their further development requires a highly detailed and localized approach (down to the level of specific coastal municipalities) that considers the natural, ecological, and socio-economic conditions of settlement and economic activity. This article presents a metho­dological approach and the results of a multidimensional typology of Russia’s coastal municipalities (186 urban districts, municipal districts, and municipal okrugs (a type of municipality in Russia)). The typology is based on interbasin natural and economic zonation; comparison of the economic, demographic, and areal size of municipalities; the position of their administrative centres relative to the coastline; central–peripheral relations within the framework of the ‘main bases’ of marine activity; marine econo­mic functionality; prevailing local socio-economic and environmental problems; and the availability of federal support through preferential business regimes. The typologization algorithm is described along with its cartographic visualization (using GIS). The article also provides an assessment and comparative analysis of the socio-economic dynamics of different types and subtypes of coastal municipalities. The study identifies multidirectional trends in the spatial socio-economic development of Russia’s coastal zone: polarization, population and economic concentration in some municipalities, and economic contraction in others. The most problematic typological groups and their geographic locations (Pacific Russia and the Arctic zone) are identified. Finally, the article emphasizes the importance of accounting for these typological features in Russia’s spatial development strategy, including in the context of federal support for geostrategic territories and the creation of a network of anchor settlements.

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Regional patterns of the manufacturing industry in the Baltic Regions of Russia: a Moran’s I spatial analysis

Abstract

The manufacturing industry of Russia’s Baltic regions has faced major global challenges in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Western sanctions. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal effects of these external shocks on industrial dynamics in Saint Petersburg, Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions, and to identify local clusters of industrial growth and decline. The methodological framework of the study is spatial analysis based on differential global and local Moran’s I statistics, which allows for the assessment of spatial autocorrelation in changes in industrial output at the municipal level during 2019—2023. Official Rosstat data, normalized (deflated) to pre-crisis levels, serve as the empirical basis of the study. The findings reveal pronounced heterogeneity in regional responses. In the Kaliningrad region, extensive zones of industrial decline emerged, reflecting the region’s high dependence on imports. By contrast, several muni­cipalities in the Leningrad region demonstrated growth, supported by production diversification and government measures. These results make it possible to identify local poles of decline and growth, highlighting significant spatial disparities in the resilience of the manufacturing sector across Russia’s Baltic regions.

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The linkage between foreign direct investment and trade openness in the Russian economy: an ARDL bound testing approach

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, and economic growth in Russia using annual time series data from 1993 to 2022. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the findings reveal that FDI and trade have positive short-term effects on economic growth but no significant long-term impact. Supporting variables such as the real effective exchange rate positively influence growth in both the short and long term, while youth unemployment shows mixed short-term effects and a consistently negative long-term impact. Military spending has no short-term effect but negatively impacts growth in the long term, whereas inflation exhibits both positive and negative short-term influences and a negative long-term relationship with growth. Granger causality analysis highlights a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and trade openness, military spending, and the real effective exchange rate. The findings suggest policies to attract sustainable foreign investment, enhance trade, tackle youth unemployment, reassess defense budgets, and maintain stable monetary policies.

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Kostomuksha at a tourist crossroads: expert perspectives from an Arctic border city

Abstract

The study examines the challenges and prospects of tourism development in the Arctic city of Kostomuksha, located in the Karelian — Finnish borderland. Founded in the late 20th century as a model of Russian — Finnish cooperation, Kostomuksha is now seeking new development paths in the 21st century, following the cessation of cross-border mobility and cooperation. Given the depletion of natural resources, the municipality faces acute pressure to identify al­ternative development strategies, including a reorientation of its tourism sector. This study aims to identify promising directions for tourism development in Kostomuksha under the new conditions, drawing on data from a sociological survey of the expert community. The ana­lysis is based on materials collected through a focus group and a series of semi-structured interviews conducted by the author in May 2024 with senior officials and key specialists from state, commercial, and non-profit organisations involved in the district’s tourism sector. The findings highlight the main constraints on tourism development in the Kostomuksha urban dis­trict: economic limitations, infrastructural deficiencies, shortage of qualified personnel, weak marketing, environmental restrictions, and the pronounced seasonality of the tourism industry. Despite these challenges, nature-based tourism is identified as the priority direction, encom­passing not only ecological but also active, cultural-educational, and event-related forms of tourism. The inclusion of Kostomuksha in the Arctic zone is viewed as an important factor in adjusting the municipality’s strategic priorities. Considering its geographic location, the avai­lability of sports and tourism infrastructure for winter activities, and the successful experience of organising large-scale events, winter tourism appears to be one of the most promising areas for further development. The study also underscores the necessity of cooperation among go­vernment, business, and civil society in shaping sustainable tourism in the urban district.

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