The Baltic Region

2016 Issue №3

Back to the list Download an article

Forecasting Actions of Baltic elites: A Scenario Approach

DOI
10.5922/2079-8555-2016-3-7
Pages
84-97

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author’s theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in the Baltics. However, a significant number of scenarios focusing on military aspects in the Baltics have recently been published. The author distinguishes between inertia, confrontation, and cooperation scenarios and examines their prerequisites and possible consequences. The scenarios are developed based on an analysis of geographic, economic, and political factors. The decisive factor is a state-controlled foreign policy, which is affected by the international situation as well as relations between the state and the external resources exploited by political elites. The paper contributes to the general debate about the factors of political development and the role of political elites in it. The author pr ovides additional material for analysing possible developments in the domestic policies of the Baltic States in view of external factors.

Reference

1. Mezhevich N. M., 2014, Major infrastructure projects and the foreign policy of the Baltic states in 2010—2014, Balt. Reg., no 1, p. 7—28. DOI: 10.5922/2079-8555-2014-1-1.
2. Mezhevich, N. M. 2015, Russia and the Baltic States: Some Results and a Few Perspectives, Balt. Reg., no. 2, p. 4—12. DOI: 10.5922/2079-8555-2015-2-1.
3. Rossija i Mir: 2016, 2015, Jekonomika i vneshnjaja politika [Russia and the World: Economy and Foreign Policy], IMEMO RAN, Moscow, p. 113—114.
4. Hrustalev, M. A. 2015, Analiz mezhdunarodnyh situacij i politicheskaja jekspertiza [Analysis of the International Situation and Political Expertise], Moscow, p. 39—51.
5. Klemeshev, A. P. Mezhevich, N. M., Fedorov, G. M. 2015, The Baltic Sea Region: The Territory and Inner Structure, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, MCSER Publishing, Rome-ltaly, Vol 6, no. 6, December, p. 212—219.
6. Boll, G. 1968, The Discipline of Power. Essentials of Modern World Structure, Boston, p. 15—16.
7. Coffey, L. 2013, The Baltic States: Why the United States Must Strengthen Security Cooperation, Backgrounder, no. 2851, The Heritage Foundation.
8. Colomer, J. 2007, Great Empires, Small Nations. The Uncertain Future of the Sovereign State, Routledge.
9. Di Paola, G., Shirreff, R., Heisbourg, F., Szatkowski, T., Keller, P., Tamnes, R. 2016, Alliance at Risk Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition, Atlantic Council.
10. Fisher, M. 2015, How World War III became possible, Vox, June 29, available at:www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war (accessed 18.07.2016).
11. Future Security Challenges in the Baltic Sea Region, 2015, A study for the Swedish Armed Forces by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Swedish Ministry of Defence.
12. Grigas, A. 2013, Energy Policy: The Achilles heel of the Baltic states, Studies & Reports, no. 98, p. 65—86.
13. Ketels, C. 2009, The Role of Regional Collaboration in the Baltic Sea Region of the Future. In: Visions of the Future: what can be achieved with a Baltic Sea Strategy? Visby.
14. Mungiu-Pippidi, A. 2015, The Splintering of Postcommunist Europe, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 26, no. 1, p. 88—100.
15. Lucas, E. 2015, The Coming Storm. Baltic Sea Security Report, Center for European Policy Analysis.
16. Nichols, T. 2015, How America and Russia Could Start a Nuclear War, The National Interest, May 7, available at:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-americarussia-could-start-nuclear-war-12826 (accessed 18.07.2016).
17. Railway advances reveal strategic interests in the Baltics, 2014, Delfi. lt, November 3, available at:http://en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/railway-advances-revealstrategic-interests-in-the-baltics.d?id=6628... (accessed 18.07.2016).
18. Sewell, W. 1992, A Theory of Structure: Duality, Agency, and Transformation, The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 98, no. 1, p. 1—29.
19. Shlapak, D., Johnson, M. 2016, Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank, Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics, RAND Corporation. 
20. Smith, K. 2014, Bringing Nordic Energy Security to the Baltic States, Center for Transatlantic Relations.
21. States Must Strengthen Security Cooperation, 2013, Backgrounder, no. 28(51), The Heritage Foundation. 
22. Paul, T. V., Larson, D., Wohlforth, W. (eds.), 2014, Status in World Politics, Cambridge University Press.
23. Stiller, S., Wedemeier, J. 2011, The Future of the Baltic Sea Region: Potentials and challenges, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. 
24. Tanner, A. 1995, Baltic Sea: Security Tomorrow — Three Future Scenarios, Brussels, Boston University. 
25. The 2015 Ageing Report, 2015, European Economy series, no. 3, Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union. 
26. Trends and Scenarios Exemplifying the Future of the Baltic Sea. Ecological Impacts of Not Taking Action, 2008, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. 
27. Zvidriņš, P., Berziņš, A. 2014, Demographic Development in the Baltic Sea Region, Political State Region Report, p. 53—60.
28. Weitz, R. 2013, Forecasting the Baltics’ Future Security Environment Richard, Diplomaatia, no. 113/114. 
29. Winnerstig, M. 2014, Tools of Destabilization Russian Soft Power and Nonmilitary Influence in the Baltic States, FOI.