2024 Vol. 16 №4

Excessive differentiation and polarisation in rural development lead to spatial compression, fragmentation, and social desertification, increasingly evident across many regions. This study aims to identify the trends, features and patterns of rural population differentiation in Russia’s North-West at interregional and intraregional levels. Methodologically, it adopted an approach that views rural space differentiation as a product of the combined influence of the agro-industrial complex system and the ‘urban–rural’ system. The changes of interest were studied from the industrial, demographic and settlement perspectives, with a focus on indicators such as changes in acreage and livestock between 1989, 2007 and 2023, and the size of the rural population and the number of residents per rural settlement between 2002, 2010 and 2020. The trends are investigated at the levels of regions — Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov — and their municipalities. Hypotheses regarding the impact of the rental mechanism and core-periphery relations on the development differentiation of district territories were tested and largely confirmed. In the study regions, areas with varying rates of increase and decrease in acreage and livestock, including zones of compression and fragmentation, were identified, along with areas where the rural population grew or declined. Spatial differentiation in terms of resident per settlement ratio is shown to largely coincide with areas experiencing the most dynamic rural population change. The study concludes that, under the baseline scenario, the development of rural spaces in the Novgorod and Pskov regions will likely intensify their polarisation with the Leningrad region and lead to socio-demographic desertification of non-urbanised areas. The findings highlight the need for significant organisational and economic measures, engaging both public and private investments from outside these regions.

The rural settlement system of the Kaliningrad region, comprising 1,075 localities, is characterised by compactness, high economic development and a predominance of small rural settlements. From 2010 to 2024, the region’s rural population increased from 210 to 235 thousand people. Simultaneously, the number of large rural settlements is growing in the western part of the region, while a stable trend of demographic decline persists among small rural settlements in the eastern part. Using statistical data, along with quantitative data from previous studies, open sources and field research materials, the authors developed a comprehensive typology of Kaliningrad region’s rural settlements. The typology classifies settlements according to demographic factors, spatial location, availability of social infrastructure, tourism and recreation facilities and agricultural enterprises of various types. The research methods encompassed tools for gathering, processing and analysing primary data, including statistical, cartographic and comparative-geographical techniques. As a result, 18 types of rural settlements were identified in the Kaliningrad region, each characterised by a unique trajectory of socio-economic and demographic development. These distinctions should be considered when designing and implementing spatial development programmes and projects at local or regional levels. The research results are presented in cartographic and tabular formats.

Agricultural holdings are often cited as the main beneficiaries, on the one hand, of organisational and structural changes in Russian agriculture during the post-Soviet period, and on the other, of the transformation of state policy in response to contemporary geopolitical challenges. This paper examines the adaptation of the territorial and sectoral structure of agriculture in a socioeconomically peripheral region in response to the expansion of agricultural holdings. This study draws on official statistical data, the SPARK database, resources from the VetIS Federal State Information System, the Unified Federal Information System on Agricultural Land, and the authors’ extensive field research. The study demonstrated that the operations of agricultural holdings can completely transform the agricultural profile of a non-Chernozem region with a declining population in terms of specialisation and organisational structure, leading to economic recovery in agriculture. The example of the Pskov region illustrates how the expansion of agroholding assets is swiftly extending into peripheral areas with abundant land and low rural population density. The interviews confirmed that livestock agricultural holdings, primarily those specialising in pork production, benefit from the social desertification of rural areas. This is accompanied by a further weakening of rural community economies, as livestock and poultry have completely disappeared from private and subsistence farms. The new pork production specialisation in the Pskov region has, as expected, led to other changes in agriculture, including an increase in grain farming. While production volumes have risen, new territorial centres have not emerged.