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IKBFU's Vestnik. Series: Humanities and social science

2026 Issue №2

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W. Anders

The impact of EU sanctions on the level of political support for the ruling and opposition forces in Syria between 2004 and 2024

DOI
10.5922/vestnikhum-2026-2-9
Pages
117-129
European Union Syria sanctions policy international relations sanctions impact political support

Abstract

This article seeks to explore how the sanctions measures imposed by the European Union have influenced, first, the level of political support for the ruling and opposition forces in the Baathist Syria and, second, the level of voter turnout in parliamentary and presidential elections. It also aims to identify possible dependencies, their causes and characteristics. The study employs the process-oriented approach. The primary method used is factor analysis, which enables the identification of hidden connections between the study variables through comparing changes in the level of sanctions pressure with the outcomes of every Syrian parliamentary and presidential election held between 2004 and 2024. After collecting the relevant data, a factor model was built and a regression analysis performed. The findings of this study indicate that, although sanctions can have an impact on the political dynamics in a targeted country, the nature of this relationship remains elusive. Perceived as an external threat, sanctions can elicit stronger support for ruling elites as manifested in rallying behind the leader.

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