2020 Issue №3

The article reflects the results of constructing an ideal synchronization model of regional economic reproduction subcycles. Achieving coherence through the mechanisms of self-organization and self-regulation is viewed to be the means of overcoming geo-economic instability. The study models the phase conjugation of information and innovation subcycle with the produc­tion and investment one, organizational one and human capital dynamics. Based on logical imitation modeling, the research identifies the conditions of their highest coherence and self-regulation as the mechanisms to strengthen the cyclical dynamics of regional reproduction and achieve the stronger re­sistance to external fluctuations.
Within the model construction the research also proposes the hypothesis about the transfer of the Kitchin cycles’ dynamics from the innovation and technological sphere, respectively, to other subsystems of regional reproduc­tion. Thus, regular crises are explained by a periodic violation of the coherence between subcycles of shorter length (taking into account their phase shift), which is analogous to the acoustic beat effect in the propagation of wave phe­nomena in natural environments. The same phenomenon becomes a factor of vulnerability of the regional system in relation to irregularly occurring and turbulently developing impulses of the external environment.
The theoretical model and hypothesis are verified on the basis of empirical data on the Western border regions of Russia as the most vulnerable zone in modern geo-turbulent conditions. The study provides the long term (2000—2018) analysis of the phase conjugacy of the innovative product share in GRP (characterizing the innovation subcycle) and the ratio of investment to GRP (characterizing the investment and production subcycle). The results obtained made it possible to typologize the Western border regions according to the lev­el of economic security in its cyclical aspect.

The article reflects the results of a study of large Russian cities (with a population of more than 100 thousand people, as well as smaller cities with the status of regional capitals), emphasizing two strategically important groups: coastal centers and cities of the Western borderlands of Russia. Hav­ing applied economic-statistical analysis for 6 indicators (average salaries and per capita measures of the number of organizations and enterprises, retail trade turnover and public catering, commissioning of houses and the number of publications in peer-reviewed journals, indexed in Scopus) the study con­firmed the hypothesis on ‘coastalizing’ socio-economic and innovative poten­tial and advanced growth of coastal centers. At the same time, there is also a high differentiation within the group of coastal cities, indicating that such trends are valid only at the national level. Differentiation and the gap on a number of indicators are fixed with respect to the group of Western Russian cities located in the border regions. It refutes the hypothesis on their advanced development due to external contact capacity (except the advanced indicators’ values on trade, driven by the role of logistical and transit centers). The study of differentiation using k-means clustering identified 5 clusters in all major cities of Russia. It allowed determining coastal and Western border cities be­longing of to the various identified clusters. The results of research highlight the necessity for improving the urban environment quality, the need to retain and attract human capital, to rethink  the center-periphery structure of the modern Russia’s space in its projection on the coastal and border area, includ­ing the frame of large cities and agglomerations.

The development of the Kaliningrad region, Russian exclave in the Baltic, is significantly influenced by foreign policy factors. The deterioration of rela­tions between Russia and the West has led to a reduction in the region's eco­nomic ties with the neighbouring Baltic States. The coastal position of the re­gion has enabled the development of foreign trade relations with East Asian and Latin American States. Diversification of ties and federal support ensured sufficiently dynamic regional development. The article analyzes the sectoral shifts in the regional economy through the study of dynamics and structural changes in the gross regional product (GRP). The data of official statistics (primarily, the Databases of the Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat) EMISS), processed by known statistical methods, were used. The conclusions about the necessity and perspective directions of further restructuring of the sectoral structure of the regional economy are presented.