A scenario approach to the strategic development of the fishing industry in the Kaliningrad region
This article examines scientific approaches to scenario planning and analyses the algorithm of business development scenarios. The authors summarise a vast array of information. An analysis of external and internal environment of the fishing industry is carried out and the problems of regional industry development are identified and systematised. Based on a strategic ...
Current Scenarios for the Demographic Future of the World: The Cases of Russia and Germany
In this article, we explore the demographic future of the world with a focus on scenarios for Russia and Germany. We seek an alternative to the Western standards of scenarios for global demographic development. We consider demographic development both in a positive and negative sense. Our analysis rests on such theoretical structures as the general theory of population, the classical theory of demographic transition, the concepts of the ‘second’,...
Forecasting Actions of Baltic elites: A Scenario Approach
... significant number of scenarios focusing on military aspects in the Baltics have recently been published. The author distinguishes between inertia, confrontation, and cooperation scenarios and examines their prerequisites and possible consequences. The scenarios are developed based on an analysis of geographic, economic, and political factors. The decisive factor is a state-controlled foreign policy, which is affected by the international situation as well as relations between the state and the external resources ...
The ‘сool war’ in the Baltic Sea Region: consequences and future scenarios..
... is the most likely scenario. I conclude that, in recent years, a certain regrouping has occurred in the region: there has been a stepping-up on the activities of the US and NATO, whereas the influence of EU institutions has decreased. A deep rift has developed between Russia and all other states in the region. There are five possible mid-term scenarios, ranging from outright confrontation to effective cooperation: an armed conflict, a dramatic aggravation of the current tensions without an armed conflict, the continuation of the ‘cool war’, the normalisation of relations, and a transition ...
Russian-Estonian relations: a medium-term forecast
... political phenomena, but rather about the trends of current states, which are called scenarios. The article describes the four possible scenarios of changes in the role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy that are evaluated from the perspective of the development of Russian-Estonian relations and factors affecting the probability of each scenario. It is shown that any change in the role of Estonia in Russian foreign policy depends not only on the specific actions of the Estonian elite, for example their readiness to change their position on the participation of Russian-speaking population ...
Islamic Diffusion in the Baltics: The Fruit of European Multiculturalism
... to the Baltic region. It is stressed that, despite current difficulties, Germany and Finland are more successful in integrating immigrants than, for instance, Sweden and Denmark. Just like other Western European countries, the Baltic States have not developed a conceptual framework for their migration and integration policies towards Muslim immigrants. The authors describe possible Muslim integration scenarios — the Singaporean and Palestinian ones, simulation, and confrontation. Given their apparent conscientious refusal to adapt and integrate migrants, the Baltic States are most likely to face the Palestinian scenario.
1. Boroday, S. 2013,...
Trends in cross-border cooperation between Russian and Belarusian regions
... уровне глав государств от 27.11.2009 № 17). URL:
(дата обращения: 03.11.2016).
cross-border cooperation, integration, foreign trade, trade, transit, development scenarios, potential
The Youth in Kaliningrad, Gdansk and Klaipeda: Geopolitical Vision of the World, Identity and Images of the Other
... strengthening the region’s economic base, it is necessary to increase the symbolic capital of Kaliningrad to achieve harmonious development of Kaliningrad identity.
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4. Ginsburg, S. 2009, Ugrozy separatizma net [No threat of separatism], Nezavisimaya Gazeta, available at: http://www.ng.ru/scenario/2009-12-22/15_separatism.html (accessed 09.07.2014).
5. Ginsburg, S. 2010, Sem' shagov [Seven steps], Nezavisimaya Gazeta,...
Scenarios of increasing the economic efficiency of the Kaliningrad regional transport system
... system from the value added perspective. We posit that the structure of cargo handled and the redistribution of value added in favour of regional actors have the dominant influence on economic efficiency. Using our own simulation model and the earlier developed system of transport tariffs and value added calculation for the Kaliningrad region, we produce scenarios and consider changes in value added in the case of selected cargoes carrying intermediate, investment, and consumer goods (as defined in the International Classification for Broad Economic Categories ICT BEC-4). Our calculations show that ...
The basic trends in the development of bilateral trade between the Kaliningrad and Grodno regions
This article examines foreign trade activities between the cooperating regions of the Union State of Russia and Belarus determined by the bilateral convergence of national economies for solving common economic problems and developing regional economies. The author identifies the degree of present cooperation, explores possible future scenarios, and emphasizes the key aspects of interaction between the regions.
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A semiotic approach to construction of information systems in the field of security
... knowledge extraction from semistructured sources. The problems of developing of optimal variants for the prevention of threats to decision support systems. The technique continuous monitoring of text messages, identify the events and situations and develop scenarios possible development of crisis situations is proposed.
1. Стратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации (утв. Указом Президента РФ от 31 декабря ...
The effectiveness of the Latvian education system assessed by the population
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The development of the industrial port complex of the Kaliningrad region
Socio-economic development of the Kaliningrad region requires new scenarios and ways of functioning of the regional economy. Based on recent regional studies, the author proposes to resume the discussion of alternative strategies for the development of the Kaliningrad region. One of the most promising ideas is the marine ...
Frame approach to analysing the semantisation of the biblical quasi-anthroponym prodigal son in the language of Russian poetry
The results obtained suggest that the realisation of the quasi-anthroponym prodigal son in Russian poetry texts of different periods is associated with either inheriting or transforming conceptual basic biblical meanings. If the basic frame scenario is executed with high precision, i.e. using a complete set of ideationally significant slots, the biblical quasi-anthroponym prodigal son determines how deeper meanings associated with the poetic interpretation of that eternal plot develop in the text. The inheritance of meanings is carried out both explicitly and implicitly, whereas the poetic interpretation of the biblical plot retains an essential connection with the basic protoframe. In most contexts, the meanings of the basic ...
The current condition of Kaliningrad landscape environment (methodology and basic results)
... territories of different genesis is used as a basis for a map of the current conditions of the landscapes of the Kaliningrad region. The authors come to a conclusion that shrinking socioeconomic space leads to an increase in the area of territories developing according to the natural scenario and exhibiting positive dynamics of regenerative succession.
1. Важенин И. Г., Белякова В. И. Агрохимическая характеристика почв // Агрохимические работы Калининградской ...
Negative externalities and sustainability of energy sector
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The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trends
... period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their quantitative justification. Special attention is paid to the method of extrapolation modeling linear and nonlinear trends. The method of trend modeling has been supplemented by the method of expert assessment. The empirical basis ...
Demographic development scenarios for the Kaliningrad region
The Kaliningrad region has a sub-replacement fertility rate (with a total fertility rate of about 1.8) and a slightly negative rate of natural increase. With a net migration of up to 10,000 people per year (Russian regions account for 37 % of this figure), the population of the region is increasing and the workforce number is stable. Population change and age-sex structure forecasts strongly rely on the estimates of prospective net migration and a rate of natural increase. Accompanied by a decreasing...
Key Strategies of Development of Research Tools and Methods for Marine Spatial Planning
... All-Russian Forum "Strategic planning in the regions and cities of Russia"], St. Petersburg, Leont'evskij centr, p. 115—119.
3. Belousov, A. R. 2006, Scenarii social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossii na pjatnadcatiletnjuju perspektivu [Scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia for fifteen years perspective], Problemy prognozirovanija [Problems of forecasting], no. 1, p. 3—52.
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The discourse of “European identity” in the conditions of the EU crisis
... обращения: 11.03.2012).
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5. Murtic M. Crisis may cement pan-European ... ... http://athensdialogues.chs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/WebObjects/
athensdialogues.woa/wa/dist?dis=94 (дата обращения: 13.03.2012).
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The Role of Tourism in the Development of Russia’s Northwestern Border Regions
... Leningradskoy oblasti na period do 2025 goda [The concept of the socio-economic development of the Leningrad region to 2025], 2013.
9. Kropinova, Ye. G., Zaitseva, N. A. 2015, Razrabotka scenariev razvitiya turizma v Kaliningradskoi oblasti do 2030 goda [Development scenarios for the development of tourism in the Kaliningrad region until 2030], Regionalnye issledovania [Regional research], no. 4 (50), p. 126—131.
10. Mezhevich, N., Zhuk, N. 2013, Cross-border Specialization of Interregional Interaction: Applying ...
The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application
... event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.
1. Агеев А., Куроедов Б., Сандаров О. Стратегическая матрица и рейтинг регионов России // Экономические стратегии....
Towards a Stable and Dynamic Economy in the Kaliningrad Region
... 472 p.
21. Scenarnyj prognoz formirovanija i ispol'zovanija trudovyh resursov Kaliningradskoj oblasti s uchetom sravnitel'noj jekonomicheskoj jeffektivnosti razlichnyh
variantov razvitija regiona po prioritetnym vidam jekonomicheskoj dejatel'nosti [Scenario forecast of formation and use of labor resources of the Kaliningrad region, taking into account the relative cost-effectiveness of different options for the development of the region in priority economic activities], 2014, Report on research work, Kaliningrad, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University.
22. Federal'naja celevaja programma razvitija Kaliningradskoj oblasti na period do 2020 goda [The federal ...
Assessment of the efficiency of Russian response to the implementation of US missile defence deployment concept in Europe
... the USA, eastern European countries and the neighbouring countries, including the Baltic Sea states. The practical significance of this study consists in the proposed and justified responses of the Russian Federation that may serve as a basis for the scenarios of development of international situation and help to forecast the level of tension in Russia-US relations.
1. Ballisticheskaja raketa «Bulava»: tehnicheskie harakteristiki. Spravka [Ballistic missile «Bulava»: technical specifications. Reference], ...
The rhetoric and logic of the representations of the Russian-Turkish War of 1877–1878 in Russian public discourse
... conscription, translated in the involvement of the general public in the current events. The new public sphere, which had been developing from the 1850s, required new languages both to describe and to transform reality, as well as to produce a collective ... ... Biography of Ivan Aksakov]. St. Petersburg (in Russ.).
Wortman, P., 2004. Stsenarii vlasti. Mify i tseremonii russkoi monarkhii [Scenarios of power. Myths and ceremonies of the Russian monarchy]. Vol. 2. Moscow (in Russ.).
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Commodity flow model for an exclave region: Rent-seeking in the ‘transitional period’ of the special economic zone
... rent extraction. The authors predict structural imbalances in the exclave economy at the microlevel, in particular, the article analyses the conceptual model of rent extraction in the SEZ transitional period. The CFMER can be used for forecasting the development of exclave’s economy under different scenarios of the evolution of SEZ in the Kaliningrad region.
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2. Fedorov, G., Korneevets, ...
Monotowns: A New Take on the Old Problem
... management in the most vulnerable monotowns that would account for the relations between major stakeholders and use the tools developed in the framework of the new institutional economic theory. Having compared the existing definitions of the “monotown” ... ... proposed in the article would help to identify a wider range of alternatives while still taking into account all the typical scenarios. The authors analyse the process of risk management in monotowns from the viewpoint of international practices; and ...
How transcendental are Kant’s principles of public law?
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the content, meaning, and scenarios of applying the transcendental principles of public law formulated in the second appendix to Kant’s treatise Toward ... ....09.2015)
13. Kalinnikov, L. А. 2005, Razvitie uchenija o kategoricheskom imperative prava v traktate «K vechnomu miru» [Development of Theory of the Categorical Imperative of Law in the Tractate “Toward Perpetual Peace”], in: Kalinnikov, L. А....
Gas infrastructure development in the countries of East Baltic as a way to increase energy security
In the context of regional gas infrastructure development this paper considers the issue of energy security of the countries of East Baltic, which depend heavily on a single ... ... current and future demand for natural gas, including the terms and conditions of contracts concluded with OAO Gazprom. Different scenarios and prospects for individual LNG terminal projects and associated pipeline infrastructure are evaluated. It is shown ...