2024 Vol. 16 №4

This article revisits approaches to regional development by exploring both previously proposed and new policy opportunities for regions facing the greatest challenges in adapting to emerging geo-economic conditions. This revision is based on the methodology of comparative analysis of discrete structural (institutional) alternatives – an essential component for ensuring the necessary evidential level in selecting economic policy instruments, complementing other applied research tools. The Kaliningrad region is one of Russia’s most complex due to its geographical isolation and historical background. The most comprehensive and consistent review of development options, or structural alternatives, for this area is found in the works of Gennady Fedorov, a professor at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. This study elucidates the need to draw on the ideas of regional and spatial economic development of the Kaliningrad region reflected in the works of Prof. Fedorov and his colleagues from 1991 to 2023, when developing scenarios for Russia’s westernmost region. The main advantage of their findings is that they are presented through the lens of interdisciplinary discourse, utilising concepts from new institutional economic theory to provide an economic perspective. This study reveals the fundamental ideas behind the concept of the geo-demographic situation, the so-called ‘Fedorov matrix’ highlighting structural alternatives for the development of the Kaliningrad region and the spatially distributed clusters. The article examines the three main development strategies of the Kaliningrad region, as analysed by Fedorov, to trace the evolution of the region’s economic activity regulation regime. A conclusion is drawn regarding the demand for industrial policy instruments for the development of the region’s economy, while also emphasising their insufficient efficiency in application. The viability of Fedorov’s forecasts, as outlined in his works, is assessed through the example of planning a spatially distributed tourism and recreation cluster.

Economic security in border regions emerged as a new area of inquiry in human geography, under the supervision of Prof Fedorov and with the active involvement of researchers from Kaliningrad, Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Smolensk, and Simferopol, within the framework of the Russian Science Foundation project № 18-17-00112, titled Ensuring the Economic Security of the Regions of Russia’s Western Borderlands under Conditions of Geopolitical Turbulence. This study is the first attempt at a comprehensive examination of economic security, considering a multitude of contributing factors: economic, social, domestic and foreign policy-related, ethnic and environmental. The socio-geographical approach to economic security provides insight into its spatial conditionality, informing our studies on regional and sectoral economics.

This article examines the Kaliningrad region’s economic development from the perspective of its exclave position, border functions and potential for ensuring Russia’s national interests. The assessment of the economic security of the region from 2000 to 2019, cited in earlier works, reveals a lack of resilience to external challenges and threats. In this article, we examine these results in the context of economic development quality and determinants, applying structural and resource-oriented approaches. It is demonstrated that, until 2022, the economic development of the Russian exclave did not fully align with national interests due to a prioritisation of international ties, often at the expense of interregional ones. Additionally, the region’s openness was increasing, with insufficient attention given to ensuring its sustainability under external constraints. Seeking to address existing shortcomings, this article presents and substantiates proposed modifications that give due consideration to economic security. Specifically, it emphasises functional and structural transformations within the regional management system.

Professor Gennady Fedorov, Doctor of Geography and a distinguished Soviet and Russian researcher, made a significant contribution to the study of economic development in the Baltic states, particularly in their economic relations with Russia. His work consistently underscored the importance of trade with Russia for the Baltic economies and its impact on regional production of goods and services. Recent geopolitical shifts have triggered profound structural changes in international trade. This article examines the trade in goods within the Baltic states, as well as between these states and third countries, including Russia. It evaluates the long- and short-term structural shifts in commodity flows, utilizing a comparative analysis of export and import trends based on the latest international statistics. The study covers the period from 2004 to 2024, drawing on annual statistics from 2004—2023 and more granular quarterly and monthly data for 2021—2024, sourced from UN/UNCTAD, Eurostat, WTO, and the World Bank. Employing methods of statistical and structural analysis and Trade Intensity Index (TII) calculations, the article investigates two hypotheses. The first hypothesis, proposing a general increase in the TII between the Baltic states from 2004 to 2023, is partially supported; Lithuania’s exports deviate from the overall trend due to the country’s strong trade links with Poland and Germany. The second hypothesis, asserting the adaptability of Baltic business to geo-economic and geopolitical stresses — including sustained trade with Russia—has been fully confirmed. The article identifies commodity groups where export and import flows between the Baltic states and Russia increased between 2021 and 2023, highlighting potential niches for Russia to maintain or expand its presence.