Балтийский регион

Текущий выпуск

Назад к списку Скачать статью Download an article

Национализация партийной системы Эстонии в 2005—2019 годах

Party system nationalization in Estonia

Аннотация

Дается оценка реализуемого в Эстонии с 1990-х годов проекта по «интеграции» этнических эстонцев и этнических русских путем ассимиляции представителей второй группы в состав первой группы. Поскольку этот проект реализуется в Эстонии на протяжении почти тридцати лет, сегодня представляется актуальным подвести его промежуточные итоги, определить, насколько успешным или провальным он оказался. В статье разработанный Г. В. Голосовым индекс национализации политических партий используется для того, чтобы определить, в какой мере проект по «интеграции» оказался способен преодолеть идеологические противоречия между этническими эстонцами и этническими русскими. Иными словами, делается попытка понять, голосуют ли этнические эстонцы и этнические русские за одни и те же партии практически в равной пропорции, или же в стране сформировались «эстонские» и «русские» политические партии. С опорой на анализ результатов четырех парламентских выборов, прошедших в Эстонии в 2007—2019 годах, и четырех выборов в органы местного самоуправления, прошедших в 2005—2017 годах делается вывод, что к середине 2000-х годов партийно-политическая система Эстонии достигла существенного уровня национализации как на национальном, так и на местном уровнях. На национальном уровне национализация партийно-политической системы оставалась высокой в 2007—2019 годах, несмотря на существенные изменения этой системы. Однако на местном уровне национализация партийно-политической системы снижалась с 2013 года, что позволяет сделать вывод о неспособности эстонского проекта по «интеграции» преодолеть идеологические противоречия между этническими эстонцами и этническими русскими.

Abstract

This article explores the Estonian ‘integration’ project, which was launched in the early 1990s to bridge the differences between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians by assimilating the latter with the former. Since the project will soon turn thirty, it is timely to ask whether it has been a success. This article employs Grigorii Golosov’s index of political party nationalization to understand whether the ‘integration’ project has helped to narrow the ideological divide between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians. In other words, the study asks whether ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians vote for the same political parties in comparable proportions or there are ‘Estonian’ and ‘Russian’ parties in the country. The analysis of the outcomes of four local and four parliamentary elections that took place in Estonia in 2005—2019 shows that by the mid-2000s Estonia achieved a considerable level of political party system nationalization at both national and local levels. At the national level, political party system nationalization remained high in 2007—2019 despite significant changes in the country’s political party system. At the local level, however, political party system nationalization has been diminishing since 2013, leading one to conclude that the Estonian ‘integration’ project has failed to close the ideological divide between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians.

Список литературы

1. Aalto P. Beyond Restoration: The Construction of Post-Soviet Geopolitics in Estonia // Cooperation and Conflict. 2000. Vol. 35, № 1. P. 65—88. doi: 10.1177/00108360021962002.

2. Aljas R. IRL-i aasta tegija Katri Raik kandideerib kohalikel valimistel Narvas sotside nimekirjas // Delfi.ee 2013. April 5. URL: http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/irl-i-aasta-tegija-katri-raik-kandideerib-kohalikel-vali... (дата обращения: 22.10.2019).

3. Bhabha H.K. The Location of Culture. L. ; N.Y., 1994.

4. Coakley J., Fraenkel J. The Ethnic Implication of Preferential Voting // Government and Opposition. 2017. Vol. 52, № 4. P. 671—697. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2017.4.

5. Csergo Z., Regelmann A.C. Europeanization and Collective Rationality in Minority Voting: Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe // Problems of Post-Communism. 2017. Vol. 64, № 5. P. 291—310. doi: 0.1080/10758216.2017.1330659.

6. Фарукшин M.Х. Проблема этнического голосования в зарубежном дискурсе // Социологические исследования. 2016. № 5 (385). P. 80—86.

7. Gnadenteich U. Savisaar Moskvas: Krimmi referendumi legitiimsus pole oluline // Postimees. 2014. March 18. URL: https://tallinn.postimees.ee/2732054/savisaar-moskvas-krimmi-referendumi-legitiimsus-pole-oluline (дата обращения: 22.10.2019).

8. Golosov G.V. Factors of Party System Nationalization // International Political Science Review. 2016. Vol. 37, № 2. P. 246—260. doi: 10.1177/0192512114552864.

9. Golosov G.V. Party System Nationalization: The Problems of Measurement with an Application to Federal States // Party Politics. 2016. Vol. 22, № 3. P. 278—288. doi: 10.1177/1354068814549342.

10. Hanley S., Sikk A. Economy, Corruption or Floating Voters? Explaining the Breakthroughs of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties in Eastern Europe // Party Politics. 2016. Vol. 22, № 4. P. 522—533. doi: 10.1177/1354068814550438.

11. Hughes J. “Exit” in Deeply Divided Societies: Regimes of Discrimination in Estonia and Latvia and the Potential for Russophone Migration // Journal of Common Market Studies. 2005. Vol. 43, № 4. P. 739—762. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00594.x.

12. Jansen Y. Secularism, Assimilation and the Crisis of Multiculturalism: French Modernist Legacies. Amsterdam, 2013.

13. Johns M. «Do as I Say, Not as I Do»: The European Union, Eastern Europe and Minority Rights // East European Politics and Societies. 2003. Vol. 17, № 4. P. 682—699. doi: 10.1177/0888325403258291.

14. Kuus M. European Integration in Identity Narratives of Estonia: A Quest for Security // Journal of Peace Research. 2002. Vol. 39, № 1. P. 91—108. doi: 10.1177/0022343302039001005.

15. Lanko D.A. Estonian Political Parties in the mid-2010s // Baltic Region. 2015. № 2. P. 50—57. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2015-2-5.

16. Lehti M., Jutila M., Jokisipila M. Never-Ending Second World War: Public Performances of National Dignity and the Drama of the Bronze Soldier // Journal of Baltic Studies. 2008. Vol. 39, № 4. P. 393—418. doi: 10.1080/01629770802461175.

17. Lewis P.G. Party Systems is Post-Communist Central Europe: Patterns of Stability and Con­solidation // Democratization. 2006. Vol. 13, № 4. P. 562—583. doi: 10.1080/13510340600791863.

18. Lijphart A. Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. New Heaven, 1980.

19. Madise Ü., Martens T. E-Voting in Estonia 2005: The First Practice of Countrywide Binding Internet Voting in the World // Electronic Voting 2006: Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Electronic Voting. Bregenz, 2006. P. 15—26.

20. Marcos-Marne H. Minorities to the Left: Ethno-Linguistic Identification and Vote in Europe // Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. 2017. Vol. 43, № 15. P. 2634—2651. doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2016.1274648.

21. Mihhailov S. Sotsid panid oma Narva kontori kinni [Social Democrats Closed Their Narva Office] // ERRi uudised. 2017. June 21. URL: https://www.err.ee/603427/sotsid-panid-oma-narva-kontori-kinni (дата обращения: 22.10.2019).

22. Moorhouse-Stein E., Rubin A. The Index of Identity Group Institutionalization: A New Tool to Quantify the Institutionalization of Identity Groups in Democratic Societies // Social Indicators Research. 2016. Vol. 128, № 2. P. 929—955. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-1063-x.

23. Pappi F.U. Political Behaviour: Reasoning Voters and Multi-Party Systems // A New Hand­book of Political Science / ed. by R.E. Goodin and H.D. Klingemann. Oxford, 1998. P. 255—275.
doi: 10.1093/0198294719.003.0009.

24. Pettai V. Balancing between Consolidation and Cartel: The Effects of Party Law in Estonia // The Regulation of Post-Communist Party Politics / ed. by F.C. Bertoa and I. van Biezen. N.Y., 2017. P. 175—194.

25. Pettai V. The Parliamentary Elections in Estonia, March 2003 // Electoral Studies. 2004. Vol. 23, № 4. P. 828—834. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2004.02.001.

26. Pettai V., Hallik K. Understanding Process of Ethnic Control: Segmentation, Dependence and Co-Optation in Post-Communist Estonia // Nations and Nationalism. 2002. Vol. 8, № 4. P. 505—529. doi: 10.1111/1469-8219.00063.

27. Sasse G. The Politics of EU Conditionality: The Norm of Minority Protection during and beyond EU Accession // Journal of European Public policy. 2008. Vol. 15, № 3. P. 842—860. doi: 10.1080/13501760802196580.

28. Smith G. Transnational Politics and the Politics of Russian Diaspora // Ethnic and Racial Studies. 1999. Vol. 22, № 3. P. 500—523. doi: 10.1080/014198799329404.

29. Solska M. Citizenship, Collective Identity and the International Impact on Integration Policy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania // Europe-Asia Studies. 2011. Vol. 63, № 6. P. 1098—1108. doi: 10.1080/09668136.2011.585762.

30. Solvak M., Pettai V. The Parliamentary Elections in Estonia, March 2007 // Electoral Studies. 2008. Vol. 27, № 3. P. 574—577. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.004.

31. Su Y.P. Personal Vote, Spatial Registration Rules, and Party System Nationalization in Latin America // International Political Science Review. 2018. Vol. 39, № 2. P. 192—208. doi: 0192512116676354.

32. Taagepera R. Meteoric Trajectory: The Res Publica Party in Estonia // Democratization. 2006. Vol. 13, № 1. P. 78—94. doi: 10.1080/13510340500378274.

33. Toomla R. Eesti Erakonnad 2000—2010. Tartu, 2011.

34. Toots A. 2019 Parliamentary Elections in Estonia / Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. URL: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/baltikum/15260.pdf (дата обращения: 22.10.2019).

35. Vanags E., Vilka I. Local Government in the Baltic States: Similar but Different // Local Government Studies. 2006. Vol. 32, № 5. P. 623—637. doi: 10.1080/03003930600896244.

36. Волков В.В., Полещук В.В. Современное состояние межэтнической коммуникации в Латвии и Эстонии // Социологические исследования. 2019. № 2. P. 59—67. doi: 10.31857/S013216250004008-1.

37. Waterbury M.A. National Minorities and Intra-Ethnic Coordination in the European Parliament: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe // Europe-Asia Studies. 2016. Vol. 68, № 3. P. 391—408. doi: 10.1080/09668136.2016.1148663.

38. White A.C. How ethnicity matters in Russian elections: ethnic minorities and support for the United Russia party // Eurasian Geography and Economic. 2015. Vol. 56, № 5 (September). P. 524—546. doi: 10.1080/15387216.2015.1120680.

39. Yiftachel O., Ghanem A. Understanding ‘Ethnocratic’ Regimes: The Politics of Seizing Contested Territories // Political Geography. 2004. Vol. 23, № 6. P. 647—676. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2004.04.003.


Reference

1. Aalto, P. 2000, Beyond Restoration: The Construction of Post-Soviet Geopolitics in Estonia, Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 35, no. 1, p. 65—88. doi: 10.1177/00108360021962002.

2. Aljas, R. 2013, Katri Raik, active in IRL for years, runs on Social Democratic list at local elections in Narva, Delfi. ee, April 5, available at: http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/irl-i-aasta-tegija-katri-raik-kandideerib-kohalikel-vali... (accessed on October 22, 2019).

3. Bhabha, H. K. 1994, The Location of Culture, London and New York, Routledge, XXVII, 408 p.

4. Coakley, J., Fraenkel, J. 2017, The Ethnic Implication of Preferential Voting, Government and Opposition, vol. 52, no. 4, p. 671—697. doi: 10.1017/gov.2017.4.

5. Csergo, Z., Regelmann, A. C. 2017, Europeanization and Collective Rationality in Minority Voting: Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe, Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 64, no. 5, p. 291—310. doi: 0.1080/10758216.2017.1330659.

6. Farukhshin, M. K. 2016, Problem of Ethnic Voting in International Discourse, Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, no. 5 (385), p. 80—86 (in Russ.).

7. Gnadenteich, U. 2014, Savisaar in Moscow: Legitimacy of Crimean Referendum is Not Important, Postimees, March 18, available at: https://tallinn.postimees.ee/2732054savisaar-moskvas-krimmi-referendumi-legitiimsus-pole-oluline (accessed on October 22, 2019).

8. Golosov, G. V. 2016, Factors of Party System Nationalization, International Political Science Review, vol. 37, no. 2, p. 246—260. doi: 10.1177/0192512114552864.

9. Golosov, G. V. 2016, Party System Nationalization: The Problems of Measurement with an Application to Federal States, Party Politics, vol. 22, no. 3, p. 278—288. doi: 10.1177/ 1354068814549342.

10. Hanley, S., Sikk, A. 2016, Economy, Corruption or Floating Voters? Explaining the Breakthroughs of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties in Eastern Europe, Party Politics, vol. 22, no. 4, p. 522—533. doi: 10.1177/1354068814550438.

11. Hughes, J. 2005, “Exit” in Deeply Divided Societies: Regimes of Discrimination in Estonia and Latvia and the Potential for Russophone Migration, Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 43, no. 4, p. 739—762. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00594.x.

12. Jansen, Y. 2013, Secularism, Assimilation and the Crisis of Multiculturalism: French Modernist Legacies, Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Press, 339 pp.

13. Johns, M. 2003, «Do as I Say, Not as I Do»: The European Union, Eastern Europe and Minority Rights, East European Politics and Societies, vol. 17, no. 4, p. 682—699. doi: 10.1177/0888325403258291.

14. Kuus, M. 2002, European Integration in Identity Narratives of Estonia: A Quest for Security, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 39. no. 1, p. 91—108. doi: 10.1177/0022343302039001005.

15. Lanko, D. A. 2015, Estonian Political Parties in the mid-2010s, Balt. Reg., no. 2, p. 50—57. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2015-2-5.

16. Lehti, M., Jutila, M., Jokisipila, M. 2008, Never-Ending Second World War: Public Performances of National Dignity and the Drama of the Bronze Soldier, Journal of Baltic Studies, vol. 39, no. 4, p. 393—418. doi: 10.1080/01629770802461175.

17. Lewis, P. G. 2006, Party Systems is Post-Communist Central Europe: Patterns of Stability and Consolidation, Democratization, vol. 13, no. 4, p. 562—583. doi: 10.1080/13510340600791863.

18. Lijphart, A. 1980, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. New Heaven, Yale University Press, 260 pp.

19. Madise, Ü., Martens, T. 2006, E-Voting in Estonia 2005: The First Practice of Countrywide Binding Internet Voting in the World, Electronic Voting 2006: Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Electronic Voting, Bregenz, p. 15—26.

20. Marcos-Marne, H. 2017, Minorities to the Left: Ethno-Linguistic Identification and Vote in Europe, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol. 43, no. 15, p. 2634—2651. doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2016.1274648.

21. Mihhailov, S. 2017, Social Democrats Closed Their Narva Office, ERRi uudised, June 21, available atL https://www.err.ee/603427/sotsid-panid-oma-narva-kontori-kinni (accessed on October 22, 2019).

22. Moorhouse-Stein, E., Rubin, A. 2016, The Index of Identity Group Institutionalization: A New Tool to Quantify the Institutionalization of Identity Groups in Democratic Societies, Social Indicators Research, vol. 128, no. 2, p. 929—955. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-1063-x.

23. Pappi, F. U. 1998, Political Behaviour: Reasoning Voters and Multi-Party Systems. In: Goodin, R.E., Klingemann, H.D. (eds.) A New Handbook of Political Science, Oxford, Oxford University Press, p. 255—275. doi: 10.1093/0198294719.003.0009.

24. Pettai, V. 2017, Balancing between Consolidation and Cartel: The Effects of Party Law in Estonia. In: Bertoa, F.C., van Biezen, I. (eds.) The Regulation of Post-Communist Party Politics, New York, Taylor and Francis, p. 175—194.

25. Pettai, V. 2004, The Parliamentary Elections in Estonia, March 2003, Electoral Studies, vol. 23, no. 4, p. 828—834. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2004.02.001.

26. Pettai, V., Hallik, K. 2002, Understanding Process of Ethnic Control: Segmentation, Dependence and Co-Optation in Post-Communist Estonia, Nations and Nationalism, vol. 8, no. 4, p. 505—529. doi: 10.1111/1469—8219.00063.

27. Sasse, G. 2008, The Politics of EU Conditionality: The Norm of Minority Protection during and beyond EU Accession, Journal of European Public policy, vol. 15, no. 3, p. 842—860. doi: 10.1080/13501760802196580.

28. Smith, G. 1999, Transnational Politics and the Politics of Russian Diaspora, Ethnic and Racial Studies, vol. 22, no. 3, p. 500—523. doi: 10.1080/014198799329404.

29. Solska, M. 2011, Citizenship, Collective Identity and the International Impact on Integration Policy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 63, no. 6, p. 1098—1108. doi: 10.1080/09668136.2011.585762.

30. Solvak, M., Pettai, V. 2008, The Parliamentary Elections in Estonia, March 2007, Electoral Studies, vol. 27, no. 3, p. 574—577. doi: 10.1016/j. electstud.2008.01.004.

31. Su, Y. P. 2018, Personal Vote, Spatial Registration Rules, and Party System Nationalization in Latin America, International Political Science Review, vol. 39, no. 2, p. 192—208. doi: 0192512116676354.

32. Taagepera, R. 2006, Meteoric Trajectory: The Res Publica Party in Estonia, Democratization, vol. 13, no. 1, p. 78—94. doi: 10.1080/13510340500378274.

33. Toomla, R. 2011, Eesti Erakonnad 2000—2010, Tartu, Tartu Ülikoolikirjastus, 250 lk.

34. Toots, A. 2019, 2019 Parliamentary Elections in Estonia, Analysis of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Tallinn, published in March 2019, available at: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/baltikum/15260.pdf (accessed on October 22, 2019).

35. Vanags, E., Vilka, I. 2006, Local Government in the Baltic States: Similar but Different, Local Government Studies, vol. 32, no. 5, p. 623—637. doi: 10.1080/03003930600896244.

36. Volkov, V. V., Poleshchuk, V. V. 2019, Current State of Inter-Ethnic Communication in Latvia and Estonia, Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, 2019, no. 2, p. 59—67. doi: 10.31857/S013216250004008—1 (in Russ.).

37. Waterbury, M. A. 2016, National Minorities and Intra-Ethnic Coordination in the European Parliament: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe, Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 68, no. 3, p. 391—408. doi: 10.1080/09668136.2016.1148663.

38. White, A. C. 2015, How ethnicity matters in Russian elections: ethnic minorities and support for the United Russia party, Eurasian Geography and Economic, vol. 56, no. 5 (September), p. 524—546. doi: 10.1080/15387216.2015.1120680.

39. Yiftachel, O., Ghanem, A. 2004, Understanding ‘Ethnocratic’ Regimes: The Politics of Seizing Contested Territories, Political Geography, vol. 23, no. 6, p. 647—676. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2004.04.003.