2024 Vol. 16 №2

This article analyses fertility rate trends in Latvia over a medium-term period of 53 years, from 1970 to 2022, aiming to predict the immediate prospects for population replacement. The novelty of this interdisciplinary research, which encompasses demography, mathematics, economics and sociology, lies in applying mathematical analysis to the study of socio-demographic processes, which has not been attempted before by Latvian or international researchers. Moreover, this study is the first to draw on the theory of economic cycles to identify demographic cycles and their phases in Latvia and predict the near-term birth rate in Latvia. Furthermore, analysing comparative data from 2004 and 2022 sociological surveys cast light on the principal cause of Latvia’s declining fertility rate. This shift is due to changes in societal values, where the family and children no longer hold a central place, which is particularly true of women in Latvia. Consumerism-driven value changes have ceased to be a sine qua non of achieving their life goals and ambitions. Facilitating an increase in the fertility rate would require considering Latvian society’s values and pursuing socioeconomic policies that comprise both internal measures, such as increasing residents’ financial security, and external initiatives, including neighbourliness promotion. Latvia’s fertility rates will continue to decline for several more years until the trough of the following demographic cycle is reached, which will be lower than that of the previous cycle. There will be an upturn within the linear downward trend in birth rates – but even this anticipated rise will not reach the earlier peak. Thus, as the findings of the study suggest, the projected increase in Latvia’s total fertility rate to 1.77 children per woman, as envisioned by the FAMILY — LATVIA — 2030 (2050) Population Reproduction Strategy, is practically unattainable by 2027.

In Central Europe and the Baltic region, healthcare expenditure has been growing slightly faster than across the euro area and in OECD countries. However, health outcomes as re­gards chronic diseases prove to be modest in the euro area and OECD countries compared to Central Europe and the Baltic region. Panel data analysis and country-specific regres­sions were conducted using World Bank data spanning from 2000 to 2019. Evidence sug­gests a significant correlation between private and current health expenditures and reduced ­mortality from chronic diseases in males, females and the total population across the panel, leading to improved longevity. Yet, public health expenditure does not correlate with a sub­stantial reduc­tion in mortality or a higher lifespan among the population, whether consid­ered collectively or among males and females separately. Similarly, an increase in current health expenditure by one unit leads to significant reductions in mortality from non-com­municable diseases: by 29 percent in the total population, 22 percent in females and 36 per­cent in males. Public health spending in Lithuania and Russia has been shown to decrease mortality from non-com­municable diseases. Furthermore, chronic mortality is associated with a significant decline in labour productivity: by 42 percent in the total population, 40 percent in males and 45 percent in females. Therefore, interventions implemented through public health systems may reduce mortality from chronic conditions in the study countries.

The analysis of changes in the ethnic structure of the population is one of the most cen­tral topics in the study of the development of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This work aims to identify stages in the evolution of ethno-contact zones in the Baltic States, using ethnic statistics from the end of the 19th century to the present. This study employs, for the first time, a methodology for identifying stages of ethnic contact zone development. This metho­dology simultaneously considers the direction of change in the ethnic mosaic index used to determine the phases of growth and dissolution of ethnic contact zones and the positive or negative dynamics of the proportion of titular ethnic groups. The ethnic mosaic index helped identify five prominent ethnic contact zones: the capitals of the Baltic countries, Ida-Viru County in Estonia and the Latgale region in Latvia. Over the past century and a half, these ethnic contact zones have exhibited three different types of dynamics. The first is characteristic of Tallinn, Riga and the Latgale region, where phases of ethnic contact zone growth and dissolution alternate as the proportion of titular ethnic groups changes in response to the vicissitudes of history. The second is peculiar to the Estonian county of Ida-Virumaa, which has experienced phases of ethnic contact zone development and an increase in the non-titular population. The third, exemplified by Vilnius, combines phases of ethnic contact zone growth and dissolution with a rise in the proportion of the titular ethnic group. The proposed methodology can be extended to the analysis of ethnic contact zone development in other territories as well.

With digital communication becoming a quotidian practice, social media has emerged as a common channel for personal and business communication, utilised by authorities among other actors. This article proposes an approach for measuring a territory’s digitalisation by quantifying local governments’ presence on social media. The work aims to identify digital underperformers among municipalities of Russia’s Northwestern Federal District, drawing on data from the Vkontakte social network. The empirical part of the research utilised data gathered from 2011 to 2022 on the socioeconomic performance and municipal heads of 1,083 settlements and 199 districts. Significant factors influencing municipalities’ presence on social media were determined using binary logistic regression, with two clustering results compared to identify the underperforming municipalities. It was concluded that population size, municipal revenues and expenditures, fiscal capacity and average salary are directly proportional to municipal social media presence, and the distance to the regional centre and the status of a district centre are inversely proportional to the study parameter. Age, place of residence and the method of nomination for elections affect the likelihood of a municipal head having a social media account. The findings show that a fourth of the study settlements, most of them located in the Pskov, Novgorod and Vologda regions, need to take measures to develop digital technologies and strengthen their social media presence.