The ‘сool war’ in the Baltic Sea Region: consequences and future scenarios.. :: IKBFU's united scientific journal editorial office

×

Login
Password
Forgot your password?
Login As
You can log in if you are registered at one of these services:
   
Science is power, it reveals the relation between things, their laws and interactions
Alexander Herzen

DOI-generator Search by DOI on Crossref.org

The ‘сool war’ in the Baltic Sea Region: consequences and future scenarios..

Author Khudoley K. K.
DOI 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-3-1
Pages 4-24
Article Download
Keywords Baltic Sea region, cool war, Cold War, foreign policy of Russia, USA, NATO, European Union
Abstract (summary) The relevance of this topic is determined by the Baltic region playing a special role in the current confrontation between Russia and the West, which is most accurately defined by the term ‘cool war’. Russia borders on the EU and NATO in that region. In this study, I aim to demonstrate the impact of the ‘cool war’ on international relations in the region and explain why the preservation of the status quo is the most likely scenario. I conclude that, in recent years, a certain regrouping has occurred in the region: there has been a stepping-up on the activities of the US and NATO, whereas the influence of EU institutions has decreased. A deep rift has developed between Russia and all other states in the region. There are five possible mid-term scenarios, ranging from outright confrontation to effective cooperation: an armed conflict, a dramatic aggravation of the current tensions without an armed conflict, the continuation of the ‘cool war’, the normalisation of relations, and a transition to large-scale cooperation. I argue that the ‘cool war’ scenario is the most likely, and the other four belong to the realm of the politically possible. Although the improvement of relations with the other states in the region is not very probable, Russia will benefit from taking every possible step towards it.
References 1. Sumer, G. The Concept of Cold War in Global Politics, International Studies Association, available at: http://web.isanet.org/Web/Conferences/FLACSO-ISA%20BuenosAires%202014/Archive/748900d4-cfb0-4d16-b2c... (accessed 16.05.2019).
2. Russia is at war with us, claims defence secretary Gavin Williamson, 2017, The Times, December 9, available at: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-at-war-with-us-claims-defence-secretary-gavin-williamso...(accessed 10.02.2019).
3. Moreland, W. 2019, Love me today, love me tomorrow? Millennials and NATO, Вrookings, April 3, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/04/03/love-me-today-love-me-tomorrow-millennial...(accessed 16.05.2019).
4. Gromyko, A., Plevako, N. 2016, On the Sweden’s and Finland’s optional membership in NATO, Sovremennaya Evropa [Contemporary Europe], no. 2, p. 13—16. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope220161316 (in Russ.).
5. Khudoley, K., Lanko, D. 2019, Finnish security dilemma, NATO and Eastern Europe factor, Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [World Economy and International Relations], no. 3, p. 13—20. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-3-13-20 (in Russ.).
6. Zhurkin, V. V., Nosov, M. G. 2019, 20 years of the EU Military Dimension, Sovremennaya Evropa [Contemporary Europe], no. 1, p. 5—13. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope120190513 (in Russ.).
7. Montgomery, M. 2019, Europe whole and free: Why NATO’s open door must remain open, Вrookings, April 3, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/04/03/europe-whole-and-free-why-natos-open-door... (accessed 16.05.2019).
8. Danielson, A., Gretskiy, I., Lada, A., Puglierin L. 2018, Flexible Europe — What Does It Mean For The Baltic Sea Region? Political State of the Region, Report, A Publication of Baltic Development Forum 2018, available at: http://www.bdforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018_PoliticalRep_v2_lowRES-5.pdf (accessed 10.02.2019).
9. Scott, D. 2018, China and the Baltic States: strategic challenges and security dilemmas for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Journal on Baltic Security (BDC), 4.1, 2018, p. 25—37.
10. Korostikov, M. 2017, Red Banner Sino-Baltic Fleet, Kommersant, 25.07.2017, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3366433 (accessed 10.02.2019) (in Russ.).
11. Charaia, V., Chochia, A., Lashkhi, M. 2018, The Caucasus 3 Plus the Baltic 3 and Economic Cooperation with China, Baltic Journal of European Studies, Vol. 8, No 5, p. 44—64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bjes-2018—0015, available at: https://content.sciendo.com/abstract/journals/bjes/8/2/article-p44.xml (accessed 16.05.2019).
12. Khudoley, K. 2017, Russia and the U.S.: The Way Forward, Russia in Global Affairs, no. 4, p. 118—129.
13. Lachinskii, S. S. 2018, The assessment of the geopolitical situation in the Baltic and Arctic basins and its influencet on economic safety of regions in borderland Western Russia, Pskovskij regionologicheskij zhurnal [Pskov area studies journal], no. 4 (36), p. 20—31 (in Russ.).
14. Godet, M. 1986, Introduction to la prospective: Seven key ideas and one scenario method, Futures, Vol. 18, no, 2, p. 134—157. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0016—3287 (86) 90094—7
15. Godet, M. 2000, Forefront: how to be rigorous with scenario planning, Foresight, Vol. 2, no. 1, p. 5—9.
16. Mezhevich, N. M. 2016, Gosudarstva Pribaltiki 2.0. CHetvert‘ veka «vtoryh respublik» [Baltic States 2.0. A quarter of a century of “second republics”], Moscow, 272 p. (in Russ.).
17. Evstaf’ev, D. 2018, Russia amid global crisis: schedule for the day after tomorrow, Ekspert [Expert], no. 44 (1095), 29.10.2018, available at: http://expert.ru/expert/2018/44/rossiya-na-fone-globalnogo-krizisa-raspisanie-na-poslezavtra/ (accessed 10.02.2019) (in Russ.).
18. Sivkov, K. 2018, Russia can attack first the foreign nuclear potentials, the arms race is inevitable, Russia has money for this, Fontanka, 10.11.2018. available at: https://www.fontanka.ru/2018/11/09/096/ (accessed 10.02.2019) (in Russ.).
19. The expert commented the words of former chief of staff of RVSN on “Perimeter”, 2018, RIA Novosti [RIA News], 09.11.2018, available at: https://ria.ru/20181109/1532437065.html (accessed 10.02.2019) (in Russ.).
20. Ivanov, I., Braun, D., Ishinger, V., Nann, S. 2018, Prevent New Destructive War, Kommersant, no. 206, 09.11.2018, p. 5 (in Russ.).
21. Woodward, B. 2018, Fear: Trump in the White House, London, Simon & Schuster.
22. Treshchenkov, E. 2018, Lukashenko: Russia needs a stable Belarus. Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, Rossiiskii sovet po mezhdunarodnym delam: RSMD [Russian Council on Foreign Affairs: INF], 05.09.2018, available at: http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/rossiya-nuzhdaetsya-v-stabilnoy-belarusi-a... (accessed 10.02.2019) (in Russ.).
23. Gretskiy, I. 2018, Belarus in a post-Crimean deadlock, New Eastern Europe, November-December, no. 6, р. 161—162.
24. Rotnem, Th. E. 2016, Putin’s Arctic Strategy, Problems of Post-Communism, October. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2016.1222869.
25. Zagorski, A. 2018, Fragile peace in the Arctic, Mirovaya ehkonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [World economy and International relations],, Vol. 62, no. 9, p. 97—102, DOI: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-9-97-102 (in Russ.).
26. Wermeling, B. S. 2018, Fighting Russia? Modeling the Baltic Scenarios, Small Wars Journal, Summer, available at: http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/Parameters/issues/Summer_2018/9_Wermeling.pdf (accessed 11.02.2019).
27. Kislitsyn, S. V. 2018, Military and political cooperation of the United States with Finland and Sweden in modern time, Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [St. Petersburg University herald. International relations.], Vol. 11, no. 4, p. 384—385 (in Russ.).
28. Eremina, N. 2019, The Prognosis of Socio-Economic and Political Development of the Countries of Northern Europe. Global prognosis 2019—2024, Rossijskij sovet po mezhdunarodnym delam [Russian international Affairs Council, available at: https://russiancouncil.ru/2019-northeurope (accessed 11.02.2019) (in Russ.).
29. Lanko, D. A. 2014, Baltic Region in International Politics: On Modelling of the Process of Regionalisation, Studia Humanitatis Borealis, no 1 (2), p. 30—41 (in Russ.).
30, Deryabin, Yu. S. 2010, Legko li byt’ poslom? Zapiski o zhizni i kar’ere diplomata [Is it easy to be an Ambassador? The notes on life and career of diplomat], Moscow, 400 p. (in Russ.).
31. Fisher, Z., Timofeev, I. 2018, The selective cooperation between EU and Russia, Prome­zhutochnyi doklad EUREN [EUREN Interim Report], October, 2018, available at: http://russiancouncil.ru/papers/EU-Russia-Network-Interim-Report_RUS.pdf (accessed 10 February 2019) (in Russ.).
32. Sineviciene, L., Krusinskas, R. 2018, How Dependent Are the Baltic States on Russia? Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 70, no. 8, p. 1264—1280. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2018.1508643.
33. Yag’ya, V. S. 2005, Rassvet nad Peterburgom: Sankt-Peterburg v mirovom soobshchestve [Dawn on Petersburg: St. Petersburg in World Community], St. Petersburg, 272 p. (in Russ.).
34. Klemeshev, A. P. Rossijskij ehksklav na Baltike: ehvolyuciya ehksklavnosti i poisk putej ee preodoleniya. [Russian exclave on Baltic sea: evolution of exclavity and search for ways to overcome it.], Baltijskij region [Baltic region], 2009, no 2, s. 102—115. (in Russ.).
35. Maksimtsev, I. A., Koroleva, A. V., Sirota, N. P. 2016, Sostoyanie i perspektivy torgovo-ehkonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva Rossii i Evropejskogo Soyuza v regione Baltijskogo morya [The present state and perspectives of trade-economic cooperation between Russia and European Union in the Baltic Sea Region], St. Petersburg (in Russ.).

Back to the section