Балтийский регион

2017 Том 9 №1

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Система безопасности в Балтийском регионе как проекция глобального противостояния России и США

DOI
https://doi.org/10.5922/2074-9848-2017-1-2
Страницы
27-43

Аннотация

Рассматривается проблематика безо­пасности Балтийского региона, как Поль­ши, так и стран Балтии. В качестве тео­ре­тический основы используются тео­рии со­общества безопасности Карла Дой­ча, Эммануила Адлера и Майкла Барнетта, а также комплекса региональной безопас­ности Барри Бузана. Также применяется теория управляемого хаоса Стивена Ман­на и понятие Междуморья (Intermarium). Исходной стала мысль о том, что ситуа­ция в Балтии зависит в первую очередь от политики внешних сил — России и Соеди­ненных Штатов Америки, является проек­цией их глобального геополитического про­ти­востояния.
Ключевой момент в данном случае — стратегия США. Делается предположе­ние, что после второй войны в Ираке аме­риканская элита идеологически расколо­лась на сторонников теории хаоса и тра­диционалистов, мыслящих категориями раздела сфер влияния с другими мировыми центрами силы.
Применительно к Балтийскому региону стратегия США не направлена на прово­цирование открытого военного конфликта с Россией. Скорее следует говорить о стрем­лении США зафиксировать суще­ствующий уровень конфронтации между Россией и ЕС, убедив последний в реально­сти российской угрозы.

Abstract

This article considers the problem of security in the Baltic region, namely, that of Poland and the Baltics. The authors rely on the works of Karl Deutsch, Emanuel Adler, on Michael Barnett’s theory of security communities and Barry Buzan’s re­gional security complex theory, address Steven Mann’s controlled chaos theory and the concept of Intermarium. Their starting assumption is that the situation in the Baltic depends largely on the politics of external powers — Russia and the United States, — being a projection of their global geopolitical confrontation. The US strategy thus becomes a major part of the equation. The authors believe that since the end of the second Iraq war the American elite has been divided along ideological lines into adherents of the chaos theory and traditionalists thinking in terms of sharing control with the other centres of global power. The US strategy in the Baltic region does not seek an open military conflict with Russia. On the contrary, the US strives to preserve the current level of confrontation between Russia and the EU, convincing the latter of the reality of the Russian threat. Countries that traditionally support confrontation with Russia, Poland and the Bal­tics, serve as a conduit for Washington strategy in Europe and a cordon sanitaire. This function is implemented through the Intermarium project meant to separate Russia from the EU. The four countries are rather active in this area, striving to attain the status of the US principal partners in the region and Europe in general. To retaliate, Moscow does everything within its power to ‘separate’ Brussels from Washington, yet the US influence is still very strong in Europe.

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