The humanities and social science

2023 Issue №3

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Prospects for a new intervention by military in the political processes in the Republic of Turkey



The military’s involvement in political processes in Turkey has ambiguous consequences for society. On the one hand, for decades, the army has supported the secular character of Turkish politics. On the other hand, the military has acted as a strong force slowing down the development of Turkish democracy, fearing a loss of influence over the state. Whenever condi­tions for political emancipation arose, the military took control, organizing mass repression in the country. The last attempted coup in 2016 undermined the already weakened position of the military, but there is no firm certainty that the army will not attempt to reclaim its role as a hidden guardian. The goal of the undertaken research was to forecast the conditions under which the military might attempt a coup. Scenario analysis was used for the prediction. As a result, three scenarios for the development of the Republic of Turkey were obtained: the estab­lishment of a rigid clerical authoritarianism, democratic transition, and the preservation of a hybrid regime. It was identified that the highest likelihood of a military coup exists under the establishment of rigid authoritarianism, and the lowest likelihood is under the preservation of a hybrid regime.