Economic security of a border region: quantitative and qualitative measurements (the case of the Rostov region)
The article evaluates the economic security of the Rostov region, a western border region of Russia under the conditions of geoeconomic turbulence. Using complementary methods of the economic-statistical analysis of dynamic series and expert interviewing, the author describes multidimensional intra-regional processes triggered by external economic shifts. Empirical research shows a decrease in several economic indicators and the response of the region's economy to external challenges. The Rostov region is capable of the mobilization of its productive forces while forming new market niches in the process of import substitution. The research shows that the Rostov region is relatively stable economically and has enough potential for progressive development. However, over the past 4 years, some negative trends have been observed. They were mainly caused by the deterioration of the regional business environment. A comparative analysis of the regional and all-Russia economic indicators, as well as the average indicators of Russia's western border regions and the Krasnodar Krai, reveals a growing competition between regions in the economically prosperous South-West of Russia. The study identified the main threats caused by both the geoeconomic situation and its projection onto the intra-regional environment. These threats aggravated system-wide economic problems.