The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trendsAbstract
During the period of implementation of the policy of import substitution in Russia, the level of production of basic agricultural products is gradually approaching the rational rate of their consumption. The biggest gap in providing the population with basic food remains in the production of milk. Only 71.0 % of the recommended norm of dairy produce is consumed. At the same time, in 2017, the level of self-sufficiency of Russia with this type of food was 84.0 % (against 90.0 % indicated in the Doctrine), due to a steady decline in the number of cows. Consequently, there was a drop in milk production. The main reason for the crisis in the dairy cattle industry is low investment attractiveness of the industry, poor breed composition of the herd, a long payback period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their quantitative justification. Special attention is paid to the method of extrapolation modeling linear and nonlinear trends. The method of trend modeling has been supplemented by the method of expert assessment. The empirical basis of the forecast calculations was the assessment of trends in the development of agricultural producers during 2004—2017.