Demographic development scenarios for the Kaliningrad regionAbstract
The Kaliningrad region has a sub-replacement fertility rate (with a total fertility rate of about 1.8) and a slightly negative rate of natural increase. With a net migration of up to 10,000 people per year (Russian regions account for 37 % of this figure), the population of the region is increasing and the workforce number is stable. Population change and age-sex structure forecasts strongly rely on the estimates of prospective net migration and a rate of natural increase. Accompanied by a decreasing age-specific mortality rate and growing life expectancy, the current age-specific fertility rate and net migration ensure a stable workforce number and a positive rate of natural increase, against the background of an increasing dependency ratio. The article considers possible measures to increase the birth rate, to reduce the morality rate, and to regulate migration processes.