The development of dairy farming: forecasts and trends
... long payback period, and poor provision of balanced feed. The production of commercial crops is more profitable compared with the production of milk. The aim of this research is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and tools for forecasting the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia during the implementation of the policy of import substitution. The methodical basis of research is a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, including scenarios and their ...
The modelling of consumer demand for food in the Kaliningrad region
... ensuring regional food security. The comprehensive model includes the regulatory and statistical patterns of consumption and a model of demand for resources among agricultural manufacturers. The article presents the results of statistical modelling and a forecast of regional consumer demand based on a survey of Kaliningraders held in October 2014 using the STATISTICA™ package.
1. Лукьянова Н. Ю., Соколова А. А. Моделирование портрета потребителя ...
On the territorial differences in chain organisation of retail in the Russian Federation
The relatively rapid – however slower than forecasted — development o retail chains is characteristic of Russia in general, nevertheless it exhibits significant territorial differences. An attempt to identify the factors behind these differences through calculating the correlation coefficient ...
The discourse of “European identity” in the conditions of the EU crisis
.... European identity cannot develop in an institutional crisis. The concept of European identity requires structural reconstruction, new foundations, since the old ones are, to a great degree, an extension of earlier political discourses.
The author forecasts that the change in discourses around European identity will lead to a shift in the paradigm and the perception of this phenomenon in political theory.
1. Janik A. Different perception of Europe in a time of crisis Europe as an opportunity.URL: ...
Contemporary society as a post-industrial and technogenic one
... техногенной цивилизации // Вопросы философии. 1989. № 10.
12. Уэбстер Ф. Теории информационного общества. М., 2004.
13. Bell D. The coming of post-industrial society: a venture in social forecasting. N. Y., 1976.
Историческое развитие современной финансово-биржевой системы, существенно повлиявшей на глобализацию мировой экономики
... биржевых кризисов.
This article focuses on the origin of world crises of stock exchange and finance and credit systems, which appear to fall into an established pattern. Only through understanding the origin of such systems, one can model and forecast the dynamics of monetary and credit processes and assess the possibility of overcoming crises. Historically, the greatest influence on exchange activities has been exerted by the credit and monetary system of the USA. Thus, a stage-by-stage analysis ...
The features of providing telecommunication infrastructure for business activity
... methodology for providing telecommunication infrastructure for business activities at different management levels. The author proves that it is possible to develop this methodology on the basis of queuing theory. The author proposes an algorithm of forecasting changes in infrastructure provision for business activity.
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2. Исследование операций / под ред. Дж. Моулдера, ...
Formation of monitoring system for food security (at the example of the Kaliningrad region)
The author substantiates that among basic elements of mechanism of food security provision one should consider monitoring and forecasting
of factors defining threats for food security in the exclave region.
1.
Демографический
ежегодник: статистический сборник. Калининград, 2008.
2.
Калининградская
...
Technogenic Tendency of Modern Society Informatisation Processes
... энциклопедический словарь. М., СПб., Нью-Йорк, 2006.
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The Information Society as Post-Industrial Society.
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Sea-industry complex as a reserve for overcoming economic crisis in the sea-shore region
The author substantiates the function of sea-industry complex in overcoming economic crisis and makes the forecast of project development
of this complex in the Kaliningrad region.
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Батурова Г.
В., Коновалов А.
М.
[и др.]. Подходы к стратегическому прогнозированию // Теория ...
Economic and Demographic Forecast and Prospects of Human Resource Endowment of the Kaliningrad Region’s Economy
The limited reproduction of labour power and difficulties in the attraction of a considerable amount of additional workforce from other regions or
neighbouring states bring about the need for the transition of regional economy to intensive development by means of innovation, increase in labour efficiency, cross-industry redistribution of labour force and exploiting the local resources of unemployed population.
1.
Программа
социально-экономического развития Калининградской области на 2007—2016...
Assessment of Alternatives of Organisation’s Strategic Potential Development by Method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (HPA)
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Forecasting knowledge as a tool for cognizing political reality
The theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting political processes are considered. The relevance of forecasting knowledge for contemporary political management and designing is grounded. The methods and implements for forecasting are evaluated not only within the context of the forecast ...
Paleoecological conditions of the Gdansk basin in Holocene in the complex analysis of short sediment cores
... to the World Ocean. Information on environmental conditions in the past is necessary to understand the observed changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, to identify the natural and anthropogenic components of these changes, as well as to make reliable forecasts. Changes in natural conditions are reflected in the composition of bottom sediments. Based on the complex study of three short sediment cores, including lithological, micropaleontological and geochemical analysis, the environmental conditions ...
Demographic development scenarios for the Kaliningrad region
... rate of natural increase. With a net migration of up to 10,000 people per year (Russian regions account for 37 % of this figure), the population of the region is increasing and the workforce number is stable. Population change and age-sex structure forecasts strongly rely on the estimates of prospective net migration and a rate of natural increase. Accompanied by a decreasing age-specific mortality rate and growing life expectancy, the current age-specific fertility rate and net migration ensure ...
The The Variability of Bottom Friction Velocity and the Suspended Particle Propagation along the Pathway of Saline Inflow into the Baltic Sea
... resuspension at these points and to predict propagation pathways.
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2. Männik A., Merilain M. Verification of different precipitation forecasts during extended winter-season in Estonia // HIRLAM Newsletter. 2007. Vol. 52. P. 65—70.
3. Журбас В. М., Элькен Ю., Вяли Г. и др. Пути переноса взвешенных частиц в придонном слое ...
The climate aspect of introducing new North American blueberry taxa in Belarusian Polesia
... article analyses long-term meteorological and climatic data for Bela¬ru¬sian Polesia, namely, the Gantsevichi district of the Brest region. The authors have established significant thermal regime changes towards warming, which makes it possible to forecast the long-term possibility of cultivating more heat-loving varieties of the Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) in Belarussian Polesia.
1. Вавилов Н. И. Избранные труды. Т. 5. : Проблемы происхождения,...
The prognostic characteristics of storm floods in the mouth of the River Pregolya (in the Kaliningrad region)
... offers an analysis of a series of maximum values of annual levels in 1950-2009 and historical maximums of storm onsets in Kaliningrad. The authors calculated the linear trend equation and identified the duration of onset cycles. The article offers a forecast for 2016.
1. Любимова О. Е., Иванов С. Н., Бережный Б. Д. Анализ динамики уровня в устьевой зоне р. Преголи у г. Калининграда // Проблемы управления ...
Environmental condition as a factor affection the health of Saint Petersburg residents
... region. The authors compare the health state trends in Saint Petersburg residents and the population of other Baltic countries. The environmental dependence of some diseases, including oncological ones, is emphasized. Three variants of population health forecasting are presented: inertiadepressive, stabilization, and stabilization-progressive ones. The article discusses the ways to increase the level of health of the city’s residents.
1. Алаев Э. Б. Социально-экономическая ...
On the role of Arctic cod in the nutrition of abundant bird species of the Barents Sea
... Barents Sea ecosystems. The author estimates the degree of its consumption by the most abundant seabirds-ichthyophagist (northern fulmar, Brünnich's guillemot, black-legged kittiwake) and performs ccalculations that can serve as a basis for bioresource forecasting for the Barents Sea in order to minimise the damage to the ecosystem and water area biodiversity.
1. Белопольский Л. О., Шунтов В. П. Птицы морей и океанов. М., 1980.
2. Шунтов В. П. Морские ...
On Integration of Alternative Approaches to the Understanding of the El Niño — La Niña Phenomenon
... attempts to 'bring together' different approaches to the nature of the El Niño — La Niña phenomenon on the basis of a multicomponent qualitative model. The capability of model is demonstrated by means of meteorological and oceanological conditions forecast in the South Eastern Pacific Ocean. The author emphasises the general impact of these conditions on the biological and fishery productivity in the area where the El Niño — La Niña phenomenon represents the most important element of the present-day ...
