The Baltic Region

2016 Issue №4

Back to the list Download an article

Geosituational Modelling of Coastal Marine Systems



The article summarizes years of experience of geosituational modelling of coastal marine systems in the Baltic Sea region and adjacent territories. Kaliningrad universities and academic institutions have done extensive research on the diversity of approaches and models of the regional geosituations as well as on identifying the most promising coastal marine areas. Some of the models presented in the present paper are qualitative, while others are empirical and statistical ones. However, the majority of the models can be referred to as forms of graphic and image mapping. The significance of the regional models lies in their specificity, a more detailed character (compared to the generalist ones) and the possibility of using them to back up managerial decisions in critical and emergency situations in order to minimize the negative effects of natural (storms, floods, earthquakes, etc.) and anthropogenic emergency situations. The authors developed a matrix classification attributable to a particular class of models for the situations leading to uncertain outcomes. The authors suggest using numerical methods combined with the empirical and statistical models for the assessment of the impact of industrial fishing on marine environment, minimizing the consequences of storms, floods and others factors. Special attention is paid to the modelling of climate change and geo-ecological consequences, as well as to atlas mapping and landscape planning. As a result of the geosituational analysis the authors got new insights into the solar-terrestrial links, marine-terrestrial ecosystems, global and regional processes related to climate change, oceanization, the vulnerability of natural systems under the increasing pressure of anthropogenic activities, and continuously increasing risks presented by industrial agriculture and other types of land use.


1. Fedorov, G. M. (ed.), 2016, Atlas poslevoennyh izmenenij na territorii sovremennoj Kaliningradskoj oblasti [Atlas of post-war changes on the territory of the modern Kaliningrad region], Kaliningrad, 36 p. (In Russ.)

2. Borodin, E. V., Churin, D. A., Chernyshkov, P. P. 2014, Influence of dynamics of waters on biomass and distribution of biological resources of a pelagiala of the southern parts of the Atlantic and Quiet oceans, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 7, p.142—154. (In Russ.)
3. Dedkov, V. P., Fedorov, G. M. 2006, Prostranstvennoe, territorial'noe i landshaftnoe planirovanie v Kaliningradskoj oblasti [Spatial, territorial and landscape planning in the Kaliningrad region], Kaliningrad, 184 p. (In Russ.)
4. Zhindarev, L. A., Badyukova, E. N., Loukianov, S. A., Solovyova, G. D. 2008, The development of barrier-lagoon Southeast Baltic systems, Oceanology, Vol. 48, no.4, p. 641—647. (In Russ.)
5. Zhindarev, L. A., Ryabkova, O. I., Sivkov, V. V. 2012, Geology and geomorphology of sea coast, Neft' i okruzhayuschaya sreda Kaliningradskoj oblasti [Oil and environment of the Kaliningrad region], T. 2, Kaliningrad, Terra Baltika, p. 19—36. (In Russ.)
6. Zotov, S. I., Voropayev, R. S. 2015, Geoecological analysis of impact of meteorological factors on the woods of the Kaliningrad region, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, p. 43—49. (In Russ.)
7. Zotov, S. I. 2001, Modeling of communications in the "Solar Activity — Climate — Natural Complexes" system, Geografiya na rubezhe vekov [Geography at the turn of the century], Kaliningrad, p.199—206. (In Russ.)
8. Kaliningrad earthquake on September 21, 2004, 2009, St. Petersburg, 170 p. (In Russ.)
9. Korolyova, Yu. V., Pukhlov, I. A. 2012, New data on bioconcoction of heavy metals in the territory of the Baltic region, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 99—106. (In Russ.)
10. Krasnov, E. V., Lyubimova, О. Е. 2013, Geosystem approach to assessment of risk of storm floods in the mouth of the Pregolya River, the Kaliningrad region, Regional'naya `ekologiya, no. 1—2 (34), p.15—22. (In Russ.)
11. Kshevetsky, S. P., Tiranvenkatasami, K. 2013, Numerical modeling of capsizing of a wave of a tsunami on the coast with a big inclination of a bottom, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 91—97. (In Russ.)
12. Malinin, V. N., Chernyshkov, P. P., Gordeeva, S. M. 2007, About a problem of the long-term forecast of a jack mackerel in a southeast part of the Pacific Ocean, Voprosy promyslovoj okeanologii, Vol.4, no. 1, p. 52—62. (In Russ.)
13. Interregional atmospheric pollution of territories: Kaliningrad region, 1997, St. Petersburg, 108 p. (In Russ.)
14. Mikhnevich, G. S., Gritsenko, V. A. 2008, Forecast of changes of quality of underground waters of the Kaliningrad region, Estestvennye i tehnicheskie nauki, no. 4 (36), p. 246—250. (In Russ.)
15. Moskalets, V. F., Lyubimova, O. E. 2013, Predictive characteristics of storm floods in the mouth of the Pregolya River (Kaliningrad region), Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 98—101. (In Russ.)
16. Orlenok, V. V. 2008, Global'nyj vulkanizm i okeanizaciya Zemli [Global volcanism and okeanization of Earth.], Kaliningrad, 226 p. (In Russ.)
17. Orlenok, V. V. 2009, Role of an endogenous factor in change of level of the ocean for the last 140 years, Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 8—17. (In Russ.)
18. Rubtsov, V. А., Trofimov, A. M., Solodukho, N. M., Shabalin, S. A. 2008, The geographical situation concept — one of the new directions in geography, Izvestiya RAN, Ser. Geography, no. 6, p.99—100. (In Russ.)
19. Sadovnichiy, V. A., Akayev, A. A., Korotayev, A. V., Malkov, S. Yu. 2013, Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie mirovoj dinamiki [Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics], Moscow, 360 p. (In Russ.)
20. Tupikin, S. N. 2003, The structural analysis of gales in southeast Baltic and the Kaliningrad region. In: Kompleksnoe izuchenie bassejna Atlanticheskogo okeana [Complex studying of the basin of the Atlantic Ocean], Kaliningrad, p. 59—63. (In Russ.)
21. Chernyshkov, P. P., Amirov, F. O., Churin, D. A., Sklyarov, M. B., Borodin, E. V. 2012, Researches of biological resources of the World Ocean in the conditions of climatic changes on the basis of modern information technologies, Geografiya XXI veka [Geography of the 21st century], Kaliningrad, p. 62—73. (In Russ.)
22. Shidlovskaya, Yu. А. 2015, Evolution of functional zoning of national park Curonian Spit], Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, no. 1, p. 72—78. (In Russ.)
23. Barinova, G., Koroleva, Y., Krasnov, E. 2012, Indicative Modeling and spatial evaluation of air pollution risk. In: Kremers, H., Susini, A. (eds.), Risk models and applications, p. 23—34.
24. Barinova, G., Krasnov, E., Gaeva, D. 2015, Changes of South Baltic Region Climate: Agroecological Challenges and Responses. In: Filho, W. L. (ed.), Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, Springer-Verkag, Berlin — Heidelberg, p. 1635—1655. 
25. Chistyakov, V. 2001, Solar activity and climate in XXI century, Reports of the Intern. Workshop on the global change studies in the Far East, Vladivostok, Sept. 7—9, 1999, Vol. 1, p. 9—23.
26. Krasnov, E., Sergeeva, L., Kostina, E. 2001, The Baltic Sea-Level events in the system of global change, Third Study Conference on BALTEX, Proceedings, Intern, BALTEX Secretariat Publ, no. 20, p. 119—120.