2021 Vol. 13 №3

In this paper, we seek to explain the fundamental vulnerability of global value chains (GVCs) to sudden shocks, as revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, and outline ways for enhancing their adaptability to the increased uncertainty at both conceptual and policy levels. We consider the concept and a typical multi-structural model of GVCs, highlighting the network complexity of the system of distributed production and trade in value added. Not only does this system bring competitive advantages to GVC partner countries, but also it entails risks of cascading production disruptions. We examine these risks by analysing the ripple effect of supply disruptions in GVCs when a sudden local shock can propagate globally through inter-firm supplier links, generating growing output losses across industries and economies. From this perspective, we describe the pandemic-induced breakdown in the global just-in-time supply system in spring 2020 and its role in the escalating global recession. In analysing the mechanisms of post-pandemic GVC adaptation to uncertainty, we look at the concept of economic resilience and properties of resilient systems (robustness, flexibility, redundancy, and dynamic sustainability). We scrutinise the supply chain resilience model used by leading MNEs (GVC organisers) in their disruption risk management at pre-disruption and post-disruption stages. We classify resilience strategies devised by MNEs after 2020 into three interrelated categories: namely, multi-structural GVC optimisation (diversification and relocation of suppliers), operational optimisation (building redundancy and production flexibility), and GVC digitalisation. We conclude by outlining windows of opportunity to improve international specialisation and growth patterns, which may open in the 2020s for developing economies, including Russia, due to the ongoing restructuring of GVCs and their global supplier networks.

Ferry service is a transport system of regular routes which links areas separated by water bodies. Sometimes ferries are the only connection of an island and the mainland which is not rare in the Baltic Sea. A typical example of this is the island of Saaremaa. Ferry service is the backbone of cargo and passenger traffic in the Baltic Sea region.

This article aims to describe the spatial structure of the ferry service in the Baltic Sea. To this end, a statistical database on 101 ferry routes has been built with passenger and car traffic on each being calculated with an original methodology, which in its turn can be applied in analysing the spatial structure and traffic of ferry services in other regions. Baltic ferries account for over half of all European ferry-borne car and passenger traffic. The Baltic stands out as a region with exceptionally long ferry routes which sustain timber exports. The main cargo shipping country in the region is Sweden.

The ports of the Baltic states have been handling Russian cargoes for many years. Thus, there is no apparent need for Russia to reroute all freight flows to domestic ports. It was not long ago that Eastern Baltic ports were regarded as ordinary competitors, however, the current geopolitical situation has drastically reshaped the framework for transport cooperation in the region. Competition and cooperation strategies are often equally viable for the ports in the Eastern Baltic Sea. Yet volatility in global markets, the unstable positions of leading exporters and importers, and changes in the economic and political environment call for new strategies and forms of interaction. This study aims to understand to what extent port authorities in the Eastern Baltic can combine competition and cooperation policies when formulating their vision and handling transit cargoes. The article draws on official statistics and Russian and international publications on the theory and practice of transport routing and the functioning of hub infrastructure. The study applies the methods of case study and statistical and comparative analysis to outline the current situation in the Eastern Baltic ports and their potential to attract more freight flows from Russia. The article tests the hypothesis that Eastern Baltic port authorities should pursue a co-opetition strategy. The study concludes that, in the immediate future, this strategy can be employed only in cases of extraordinary circumstances, for example, at peak loads.