Current issue

The article analyses the activities of German political foundations in Belarus between 2014 and 2020, using the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation as case studies. The study is grounded in the framework of neoclassical realism, which conceptualises foundations as actors capable of autonomous action while operating within the broader contours of German foreign policy. The study examines their public events, analytical publications, and interactions with Belarusian society and state institutions in the period leading up to the political crisis of 2020. The Ebert Foundation focused primarily on socio-economic reforms, emphasising what it characterised as the “obsolescence” of the Belarusian economic model, an argument that, in its view, created a basis for seeking Western support. The Adenauer Foundation, by contrast, concentrated on security issues. The study concludes that only some activities of the foundations were directed at promoting internal change within the Belarusian political regime. In practice, the geopolitical logic came to the fore, as both foundations sought to influence the regional order, most notably by promoting the notion of Belarusian ‘neutrality’, which could contribute to weakening Russia’s military and political position in the Baltic region, including with regard to the Kaliningrad region. The research did not reveal sufficient public evidence to suggest that the foundations played a decisive role in the development of organisational structures within the Belarusian opposition during the 2020 crisis. Instead, their priorities often lay in building transnational expert networks aimed at advancing pro-Western geopolitical narratives in Belarus. These findings call into question the widespread assumption that German political foundations function primarily as ‘democratisation’ actors constrained by ideological templates, suggesting instead that they operate as flexible and pragmatic actors pursuing geopolitical objectives.

The article analyses the Baltic region as an arena of intensified Russia—West confrontation, applying the ‘grey zone’ concept understood as a domain where traditional military threats intersect with hybrid forms of influence. The authors examine the factors contributing to the escalation of tension in the region, including militarisation, economic sanctions, information pressure, and the use of proxy instruments. Particular attention is given to the geographical and legal conditions shaping strategic instability, as well as to historical precedents, most notably World War II, which, in the authors’ view, helps contextualise contemporary risks. The article outlines the methods used by NATO and the Baltic States in constructing the ‘grey zone’, including the expansion of military presence, the manipulation of legal frameworks, and the deployment of non-military instruments of pressure. The authors conclude that the Baltic region is approaching the threshold of open conflict, and Western policies are interpreted as efforts to constrain Russian influence without resorting to direct military engagement. The study employs comparative analysis, qualitative content analysis of key sources, and event analysis of the actions of EU and NATO member states to assess perceived threats and the dynamics of regional instability.

The article explores the political context, principal reasons, and objectives behind the signing of the Nancy Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation by France and Poland in 2025, as well as its substantive provisions. The analysis is situated within two comparative frameworks: a historical one, tracing the fluctuations in Polish–French relations after 1991, and a spatial one, reflecting France’s policy under Emmanuel Macron aimed at renewing partnerships through treaties with Germany, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The study shows that the Nancy Treaty is intended to consolidate the latest improvement in Polish–French relations, shaped by the conflict in Ukraine and by uncertainty regarding the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. The analysis of the treaty indicates that, compared with the 1991 agreement, the Franco-Polish partnership has been significantly strengthened, and both parties view each other as partners in the broader confrontation with Russia, while nonetheless refraining from offering any new security guarantees. A comparison of the Nancy Treaty with four similar agreements suggests that Poland has been brought into the group of France’s close EU partners, although it remains less aligned than Germany and, to some extent, Italy and Spain. The authors conclude that the treaty opens new opportunities for Franco-Polish cooperation, although further rapprochement will depend largely on the political will of the two countries’ leaders. The treaty may signal France’s intention to position Poland as a leading power in Eastern Europe, although a definitive assessment will only be possible once the conflict in Ukraine has been resolved.

The study focuses on the image of Russia in Finland’s historical politics in the context of the country’s accession to NATO. Its aim is to identify changes in the place attributed to Russia in the Finnish political elite’s references to Finland’s own past, shared Russian–Finnish history, and world history. To achieve this objective, the author analyses speeches by the President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, on foreign policy issues delivered between 2021 and 2024: prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, during Helsinki’s accession process to NATO, and after Finland obtained full membership in the Alliance. The theoretical framework of the study draws on the concept of historical politics as interpreted by Alexei Miller, as well as on the theory of historical narrative developed by Eviatar Zerubavel. The primary research method employed is discourse analysis in accordance with the approach of Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe. The analysis reveals that Sauli Niinistö referred most actively to the past during the first year of the conflict in Ukraine and following Finland’s application for NATO membership. Since 2022, the Winter War and other episodes of Russian–Finnish confrontation have assumed a far more prominent role in historical politics than the 1975 Helsinki Accords. These references contribute to the construction of Russia’s image as an enemy and a threat in both the present and the past, and serve to mobilise public support within Finland for Ukraine. As a result, the historical narrative increasingly takes the form of a prolonged and continuous struggle between the two nations, devoid of any experience of mutually beneficial cooperation or sustained dialogue between the two countries.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of integration agreements and sanctions on Russia’s foreign trade in raw materials and industrial goods. Using international statistical data for 1995—2024 from UNCTAD, the World Bank, CEIC, UNIDO, CEPII, FAO, WTO, and GSDB, and applying a gravity model that controls for globalization effects, the study assesses the potential for stimulating Russia’s foreign trade through WTO membership and participation in trade and cooperation agreements under conditions of sanction constraints.

The results of the analysis demonstrate an overall negative impact of sanctions on Russia’s trade, with large-scale restrictive measures exerting the most pronounced effect, substantially reducing trade with Western countries that imposed sanctions in 2022—2024. The influence of investment agreements on Russia’s foreign trade is found to be invariant. Although advanced (deep) trade agreements, in contrast to shallow ones, have a generally positive long-term effect on trade, they stimulate expansion in industrial goods to a greater extent than in raw materials. The positive impact of both advanced and shallow trade agreements, as well as WTO membership, on Russia’s foreign trade, particularly in industrial goods, shows a strengthening trend over time. In addition, the overall growth of international trade in 2022—2024 contributed to the expansion of Russia’s trade with WTO member countries, primarily in raw materials. Comparative analysis indicates that the reorientation of trade towards WTO members, together with the recovery of global trade, helped mitigate the negative effects of large-scale sanctions imposed by Western countries, while Russia’s advanced and shallow trade agreements played a supplementary stimulatory role in this process. These findings demonstrate the necessity of expanding Russia’s integration frameworks with ‘friendly’ countries in the context of intensifying sanctions pressure from Western states.

Contemporary geoeconomic transformations have heightened the need for spatial analysis of the sustainability of scientific and technological development across Russian regions, parti­cularly in light of the strategic transition from import substitution to technological sovereignty. This study examines typological differences in the level and dynamics of scientific and technological activity of Russian regions between 2012 and 2024, identifying territories that have consistently demonstrated strong performance and are therefore capable of serving as centres for national technological policy amid changing external conditions. The analysis applies hierarchical cluster methods to longitudinal data on regional scientific and technological inputs (staff, funding) and outputs (performance). The extended temporal scope enables the identification of stable regional dynamic profiles, revealing structural distinctions and long-term developmental trajectories. This approach is especially relevant today, as national scientific and technological development increasingly depends on domestic resources, capabilities and competencies. The study establishes a typology of regions, with a core group distinguished by substantial resource concentration and persistently superior performance. It is concluded that the analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics enables the identification of regions that demonstrate resilience to external shifts and have the capacity to contribute to the implementation of a long-term state strategy in science, technology and innovation.

This study aims to examine the current state and prospects of the territorial transformation of agricultural land use, with a view to identifying key development trajectories and potential risks associated with returning unused land to economic circulation. The analysis focuses on agricultural land use in the Leningrad region, a territory with a highly developed agricultural sector and an important part of the Baltic Sea region. The methodological approach combines an assessment of spatial changes in the territorial structure of agricultural land use with an examination of structural shifts in the distribution of farmland, arable land, and sown areas. Indicators of structural change and their growth rates were analysed at the municipal-district level between the 2006 All-Russian Agricultural Census and the 2021 microcensus. The study traces the intensity of territorial shifts in agricultural land use across three periods (1990—2006, 2006—2016, and 2016—2021) and identifies the main characteristics and directions of these transformations, including north – south and centre—periphery patterns. Particular attention is paid to the influence of urbanisation on territorial change, especially in areas bordering Saint Petersburg. The analysis also highlights spatial differentiation within the region and identifies three principal zones of unused farmland. The case of the northern, peripheral Priozersk District shows that, when supported by favourable socioeconomic and institutional conditions, agricultural land can retain its value for agribusiness despite broader structural pressures. The study concludes by outlining region-specific approaches to mitigating potential risks to agricultural land use, assuming that current transformation trends continue.