2014 Issue №1(19)

The Kaliningrad region is developing in complicated exclave conditions, which results in insufficient resilience of its economy to external impacts. There is a need for constant monitoring of the economic situation in the region and the adaptation of the regional strategy to changing conditions. This article sets out to evaluate the stages of regional economy development and the methods of its modernisation and restructuring in view of accumulated experience in reacting to changes in conditions of regional development. The authors analyse complex statistical data from 1990—2012 and the modern condition of the Kaliningrad regional economy compared to the national average. The article relies heavily on the results of the survey of specialists working in regional companies. Russian accession to the WTO and the abolition of certain customs privileges planned for 2016 form the basis for the import substitution manufacturing and will significantly affect the conditions of regional economy development. Implementation of the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Region will contribute to the innovativeness of economy, its export orientation, development through an increase in labour productivity, and cooperation with both Russian and international partners. It will reduce the dependence of production on imported raw materials and semi-finished produces, as well as its energy intensity. The formation of a new more stable economy will be facilitated through federal support and implementation of a number of regional programmes.

This article focuses on a commodity flow model for an exclave region (CFMER). The CFMER development is aimed at identifying aggregate proportions of the exclave’s economy in the transitional period of the special economic zone (SEZ) functioning. The key method of analysis is the comparison of data on the generation of gross regional product and regional foreign economic activities (including export and import of goods and moving goods from/into the Kaliningrad region to other Russian regions). It results in a conceptual CFMER, which is assessed as of 2011. The availability of additional — as compared to a regular region — data on commodity flows in the framework of the SEZ transitional period makes it possible to identify structural disproportions in the economy. It is shown that the introduction of the SEZ transitional period did not result in a change in the conceptual model of the regional economy’s functioning merely increasing the opportunities for rent extraction. The authors predict structural imbalances in the exclave economy at the microlevel, in particular, the article analyses the conceptual model of rent extraction in the SEZ transitional period. The CFMER can be used for forecasting the development of exclave’s economy under different scenarios of the evolution of SEZ in the Kaliningrad region.

This article evaluates the social wellbeing of rural municipalities of the Kaliningrad region. The degree of social wellbeing is assessed on the basis of an analysis of statistical data and expert evaluations. Rural districts were identified in the Kaliningrad region on the basis of the following criteria: the share of population residing in the rural areas (threshold value of 50 %); the share of non-residential areas (threshold value of 75 %), the share of agricultural lands (threshold value of 50 %). Further analysis was based on the indices of geodemographic situation, investment potential, and production development. Rural municipalities were ranked according to these indices. The study showed that the best performing area are the suburban districts of Guryevsk and Bagrationovsk and the agricultural districts of Nesterov and Pravdinsk, whereas the worst performing ones are those of Gvardeisk, Krasnoznamensk, Ozersk, and Chernykhovsk. A comparison with the other constituent entities of the Northwestern federal district proved that the level of social wellbeing of Kaliningrad rural municipalities is rather high and most of them have made the transition from depression to sustainable development.